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Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province

Aplikasi Double Exponential Smoothing Holt dan Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter dengan Optimasi Golden Section untuk Meramalkan Nilai Ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 18 No. 3 (2022) · pp. 475–483

DOI
10.20956/j.v18i3.17492
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2022-05-15
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

English

Exponential smoothing is one of the short term forecasting methods. The selection of the forecasting method can be done by considering the type of data pattern, such as the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt method which can be used on trend patterned data and the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter method which can be used on trend and seasonal patterned data. The main problem in using the Holt DES and Holt-Winter TES methods is the parameter selection which is usually done by trial and error, but this method takes a long time so that in this research a more efficient method is used to obtain optimal parameters, namely the golden section method. The purpose of this research was to forecast and obtain the best method for forecasting the export value of East Borneo Province. The results showed that the forecasted of export values used the Holt DES, the additive Holt-Winter TES, and the multiplicative Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method had a MAPE of less than 10%, which means that the forecast used these methods were very good. The best method to predict the export value of East Borneo Province was the additive Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method.

Bahasa Indonesia

Exponential smoothing merupakan salah satu metode peramalan jangka pendek. Pemilihan metode peramalan tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan jenis pola data, seperti metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt yang dapat digunakan pada data yang berpola tren dan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter yang dapat digunakan pada data yang berpola tren dan musiman. Masalah utama dalam penggunaan metode DES Holt dan TES Holt-Winter adalah pemilihan parameter yang biasanya dilakukan dengan cara trial and error, namun cara tersebut membutuhkan waktu yang cukup lama sehingga pada penelitian ini digunakan metode yang lebih efisien untuk memperoleh parameter optimal, yaitu metode golden section. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan dan memperoleh metode terbaik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peramalan nilai ekspor dengan metode DES Holt, TES Holt-Winter aditif, dan TES Holt-Winter multiplikatif mempunyai MAPE kurang dari 10% yang berarti bahwa hasil peramalan dengan metode-metode tersebut sangat baik. Metode terbaik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur adalah metode TES Holt-Winter aditif dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 8,090961%.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

34 authors · 81 co-authorship links

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  • Monash University
  • Affiliation unknown
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Endang NurcahyaniAffiliation unknown6
Bambang IrawanMonash University4
Sumardi SumardiAffiliation unknown2
YuliantyAffiliation unknown2
Melisa ArumsariAffiliation unknown2
Adelia RamadhaniAffiliation unknown2
Asrul SaniAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad SudiaAffiliation unknown1
Rochmah AgustrinaAffiliation unknown1
Herta M. ManullangAffiliation unknown1
Darnah DarnahAffiliation unknown1
Selsi SelsiAffiliation unknown1
Risma RasmaniAffiliation unknown1
Tundjung Tripeni HandayaniAffiliation unknown1
Resta TaniaAffiliation unknown1
Wanda AmeliaAffiliation unknown1
vega abresaAffiliation unknown1
Endang Nurcahyani2Affiliation unknown1
Lili ChrisnawatiAffiliation unknown1
Nurshella AphertaAffiliation unknown1
Resya Tamara AgustinAffiliation unknown1
Lutfiah YuniarAffiliation unknown1
Rezza Kusumma DewiyatnoAffiliation unknown1
Kharisma Purnama AgustinAffiliation unknown1
Memi Nor HayatiAffiliation unknown1
Kartika RamadaniAffiliation unknown1
M. FathurahmanAffiliation unknown1
Yusrian PalilingAffiliation unknown1
Suyitno SuyitnoAffiliation unknown1
Ni Made Shantia AnandaAffiliation unknown1
SuyitnoAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Application of Double Exponential Smoothing Holt  and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter  with Golden Section Optimization to Forecast Export Value of East Borneo Province</dc:title>
	<dc:title xml:lang="id">Aplikasi Double Exponential Smoothing Holt  dan Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter  dengan Optimasi Golden Section untuk Meramalkan Nilai Ekspor  Provinsi Kalimantan Timur</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Andriani, Novita </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Wahyuningsih, Sri </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Siringoringo, Meiliyani </dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Eksport</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">golden section</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Holt’s double exponential smoothing</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Exponential smoothing is one of the short term forecasting methods. The selection of the forecasting method can be done by considering the type of data pattern, such as the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt method which can be used on trend patterned data and the Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter method which can be used on trend and seasonal patterned data. The main problem in using the Holt DES and Holt-Winter TES methods is the parameter selection which is usually done by trial and error, but this method takes a long time so that in this research a more efficient method is used to obtain optimal parameters, namely the golden section method. The purpose of this research was to forecast and obtain the best method for forecasting the export value of East Borneo Province. The results showed that the forecasted of export values used the Holt DES, the additive Holt-Winter TES, and the multiplicative Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method had a MAPE of less than 10%, which means that the forecast used these methods were very good. The best method to predict the export value of East Borneo Province was the additive Holt-Winter TES with golden section optimization method.</dc:description>
	<dc:description xml:lang="id">Exponential smoothing merupakan salah satu metode peramalan jangka pendek. Pemilihan metode peramalan tersebut dapat dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan jenis pola data, seperti metode Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) Holt yang dapat digunakan pada data yang berpola tren dan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) Holt-Winter yang dapat digunakan pada data yang berpola tren dan musiman. Masalah utama dalam penggunaan metode DES Holt dan TES Holt-Winter adalah pemilihan parameter yang biasanya dilakukan dengan cara trial and error, namun cara tersebut membutuhkan waktu yang cukup lama sehingga pada penelitian ini digunakan metode yang lebih efisien untuk memperoleh parameter optimal, yaitu metode golden section. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan dan memperoleh metode terbaik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peramalan nilai ekspor dengan metode DES Holt, TES Holt-Winter aditif, dan TES Holt-Winter multiplikatif mempunyai MAPE kurang dari 10% yang berarti bahwa hasil peramalan dengan metode-metode tersebut sangat baik. Metode terbaik untuk meramalkan nilai ekspor Provinsi Kalimantan Timur adalah metode TES Holt-Winter aditif dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 8,090961%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-05-15</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/17492</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v18i3.17492</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 18 No. 3 (2022): MAY, 2022; 475-483</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/17492/8157</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v18i3.17492.g8157</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2022 Author and publisher</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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