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Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits to Indonesia Used Intervention Analysis with Step Function

Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara ke Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Intervensi Fungsi Step

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022) · pp. 146–162

DOI
10.20956/j.v19i1.21607
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2022-09-07
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

English

Intervention analysis is a method for processing time series data that can be used to explain the effect of an intervention that is influenced by external and internal factors. One application of this method is the data on the number of foreign tourist visits. Since the emergence of COVID-19 in Indonesia, especially in March 2020, Indonesia has begun to implement a lockdown policy and restrict foreign tourists from entering Indonesia. Lockdown policy caused the number of foreign tourist arrivals to decreased drastically. The purpose of this study was obtained a model and forecast results for the number of foreign tourist arrivals for the period November 2021 to November 2022 used a step function intervention analysis. The results of the analysis was shown that the ARIMA intervention model (0,1,1) with a step function with an intervention orde of b=0, s=0, and r=0 was the best model. The results of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia will increase slowly from November 2021 to November 2022 with a MAPE value 9.91%.

Bahasa Indonesia

Analisis intervensi merupakan metode analisis data runtun waktu yang dapat digunakan untuk menjelaskan efek dari suatu intervensi akibat faktor eksternal maupun internal. Salah satu penerapan metode ini adalah pada data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara. Semenjak munculnya COVID-19 di Indonesia pada bulan Maret 2020, Indonesia mulai menerapkan kebijakan lockdown dan membatasi wisatawan mancanegara untuk masuk ke Indonesia. Hal ini menyebabkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara menurun drastis. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh model dan hasil ramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara periode November 2021 sampai November 2022 menggunakan analisis intervensi fungsi step. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi ARIMA (0,1,1) dengan fungsi step yang mempunyai orde intervensi b=0, s=0, dan r=0 merupakan model terbaik. Hasil peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan secara perlahan dari November 2021 sampai November 2022 dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 9,91%.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

35 authors · 82 co-authorship links

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  • Monash University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Endang NurcahyaniAffiliation unknown6
Bambang IrawanMonash University4
Sumardi SumardiAffiliation unknown2
YuliantyAffiliation unknown2
Melisa ArumsariAffiliation unknown2
Novita AndrianiAffiliation unknown2
Asrul SaniAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad SudiaAffiliation unknown1
Rochmah AgustrinaAffiliation unknown1
Herta M. ManullangAffiliation unknown1
Darnah DarnahAffiliation unknown1
Selsi SelsiAffiliation unknown1
Risma RasmaniAffiliation unknown1
Tundjung Tripeni HandayaniAffiliation unknown1
Resta TaniaAffiliation unknown1
Wanda AmeliaAffiliation unknown1
vega abresaAffiliation unknown1
Endang Nurcahyani2Affiliation unknown1
Lili ChrisnawatiAffiliation unknown1
Nurshella AphertaAffiliation unknown1
Resya Tamara AgustinAffiliation unknown1
Lutfiah YuniarAffiliation unknown1
Rezza Kusumma DewiyatnoAffiliation unknown1
Kharisma Purnama AgustinAffiliation unknown1
Memi Nor HayatiAffiliation unknown1
Kartika RamadaniAffiliation unknown1
M. FathurahmanAffiliation unknown1
Yusrian PalilingAffiliation unknown1
Suyitno SuyitnoAffiliation unknown1
Ni Made Shantia AnandaAffiliation unknown1
SuyitnoAffiliation unknown1
Ahmad SofwanAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits to Indonesia Used Intervention Analysis with Step Function</dc:title>
	<dc:title xml:lang="id">Peramalan Jumlah Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara ke Indonesia Menggunakan Analisis Intervensi Fungsi Step</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Ramadhani, Adelia</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Wahyuningsih, Sri </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en"> Siringoringo, Meiliyani </dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ARIMA</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Foreign Tourists</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Intervention Analysis</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Step Function</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="id">Analisis Intervensi</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="id">ARIMA</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="id">Fungsi Step</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="id">Wisatawan Mancanegara</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">   Intervention analysis is a method for processing time series data that can be used to explain the effect of an intervention that is influenced by external and internal factors. One application of this method is the data on the number of foreign tourist visits. Since the emergence of COVID-19 in Indonesia, especially in March 2020, Indonesia has begun to implement a lockdown policy and restrict foreign tourists from entering Indonesia. Lockdown policy caused the number of foreign tourist arrivals to decreased drastically. The purpose of this study was obtained a model and forecast results for the number of foreign tourist arrivals for the period November 2021 to November 2022 used a step function intervention analysis. The results of the analysis was shown that the ARIMA intervention model (0,1,1) with a step function with an intervention orde of b=0, s=0, and r=0 was the best model. The results of forecasting the number of foreign tourist visits to Indonesia will increase slowly from November 2021 to November 2022 with a MAPE value 9.91%.</dc:description>
	<dc:description xml:lang="id">Analisis intervensi merupakan metode analisis data runtun waktu yang dapat digunakan untuk menjelaskan efek dari suatu intervensi akibat faktor eksternal maupun internal. Salah satu penerapan metode ini adalah pada data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara. Semenjak munculnya COVID-19 di Indonesia pada bulan Maret 2020, Indonesia mulai menerapkan kebijakan lockdown dan membatasi wisatawan mancanegara untuk masuk ke Indonesia. Hal ini menyebabkan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara menurun drastis. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh model dan hasil ramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara periode November 2021 sampai November 2022 menggunakan analisis intervensi fungsi step. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa model intervensi ARIMA (0,1,1) dengan fungsi step yang mempunyai orde intervensi b=0, s=0, dan r=0 merupakan model terbaik. Hasil peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia akan mengalami peningkatan secara perlahan dari November 2021 sampai November 2022 dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 9,91%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-09-07</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/21607</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v19i1.21607</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): SEPTEMBER, 2022; 146-162</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/21607/8617</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v19i1.21607.g8617</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2022 Author and publisher</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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