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Forecasting Inflation In Indonesia Using The Modified Fuzzy Time Series Cheng

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022) · pp. 210–222

DOI
10.20956/j.v19i1.21868
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2022-09-07
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

English

Inflation is one of the most important indicators to analyze a country’s economy. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the inflation rate. Forecasting can be done by various methods, one of which is Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. In this study, several modifications were made to the method used. The purpose of this study is to forecast using the Modified Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng method and determine the accuracy of the forecasting results obtained. The results of this study indicate that the Modified FTS Cheng method can be used in forecasting, either by determining the interval average-based or using the Sturges equation. Based on the results of the calculation of forecasting accuracy using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the accuracy for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on the current state and next state is 11.58% and 5.78%, respectively. Furthermore, the Modified FTS Cheng by determining the interval using the Sturges equation resulted in a MAPE value of 9.61% and a FTS Cheng of 7.54%. The MAPE value of each method is less than 10%, which means that the method has a very good performance, except for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on current state has good performance with MAPE values ​​between 10 % and 20%.

Bahasa Indonesia

Inflasi merupakan salah satu indikator penting yang digunakan dalam menganalisa perekonomian di suatu negara. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan peramalan terhadap tingkat inflasi. Peramalan dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai metode, salah satunya Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan beberapa modifikasi pada metode yang digunakan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng yang Dimodifikasi dan menentukan akurasi dari hasil peramalan yang diperoleh. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dapat digunakan dalam melakukan peramalan, baik dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata maupun menggunakan persamaan Sturges. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan keakuratan peramalan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) diperoleh akurasi untuk Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata untuk peramalan berdasarkan current state dan next state masing-masing sebesar 11,58% dan 5,78%. Selanjutnya, Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval meggunakan persamaan Sturges menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 9,61% dan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng sebesar 7,54%. Nilai MAPE dari masing-masing metode kurang dari 10% yang berarti bahwa metode tersebut mempunyai kinerja yang sangat baik, kecuali Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata untuk peramalan berdasarkan current state mempunyai kinerja yang baik dengan nilai MAPE berada antara 10% dan 20%.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

19 authors · 33 co-authorship links

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • State University of Makassar
  • Telkom University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Naimah ArisAffiliation unknown5
Budi NurwahyuAffiliation unknown3
Faisal FaisalAffiliation unknown2
Khaeruddin KhaeruddinState University of Makassar1
Meriam MeriamAffiliation unknown1
Islamiyah AbbasAffiliation unknown1
Hasmawati BasirAffiliation unknown1
Muh. Ali ImranAffiliation unknown1
Aswad Hariri MangalaengAffiliation unknown1
Salsabila AmmariAffiliation unknown1
Hasmawati HasmawatiTelkom University1
Ananda Dwi Nabila NandaAffiliation unknown1
Ervie Yuniarti Astika Mustafaputri YuniartiAffiliation unknown1
Heryati Nur Fatimah SariAffiliation unknown1
Dermawan SaputraAffiliation unknown1
Cindy CindyAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Forecasting Inflation In Indonesia Using The Modified Fuzzy Time Series Cheng</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en"> Kadry, Indi Ria Al</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Massalesse, Jusmawati</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en"> Nur, Muh.</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Inflation,</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en"> Forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Modified Fuzzy Time Series Cheng and MAPE</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Inflation is one of the most important indicators to analyze a country’s economy. Therefore, it is necessary to forecast the inflation rate. Forecasting can be done by various methods, one of which is Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. In this study, several modifications were made to the method used. The purpose of this study is to forecast using the Modified Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) Cheng method and determine the accuracy of the forecasting results obtained. The results of this study indicate that the Modified FTS Cheng method can be used in forecasting, either by determining the interval average-based or using the Sturges equation. Based on the results of the calculation of forecasting accuracy using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the accuracy for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on the current state and next state is 11.58% and 5.78%, respectively. Furthermore, the Modified FTS Cheng by determining the interval using the Sturges equation resulted in a MAPE value of 9.61% and a FTS Cheng of 7.54%. The MAPE value of each method is less than 10%, which means that the method has a very good performance, except for Modified FTS Cheng by determining the average-based interval for forecasting based on current state has good performance with MAPE values ​​between 10 % and 20%.
 </dc:description>
	<dc:description xml:lang="id">Inflasi merupakan salah satu indikator penting yang digunakan dalam menganalisa perekonomian di suatu negara. Oleh karena itu, perlu dilakukan peramalan terhadap tingkat inflasi. Peramalan dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai metode, salah satunya Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan beberapa modifikasi pada metode yang digunakan. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng yang Dimodifikasi dan menentukan akurasi dari hasil peramalan yang diperoleh. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dapat digunakan dalam melakukan peramalan, baik dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata maupun menggunakan persamaan Sturges. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan keakuratan peramalan menggunakan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) diperoleh akurasi untuk Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata untuk peramalan berdasarkan current state dan next state masing-masing sebesar 11,58% dan 5,78%. Selanjutnya, Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval meggunakan persamaan Sturges menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 9,61% dan Fuzzy Time Series Cheng sebesar 7,54%. Nilai MAPE dari masing-masing metode kurang dari 10% yang berarti bahwa metode tersebut mempunyai kinerja yang sangat baik, kecuali Fuzzy Time Series Cheng Dimodifikasi dengan penentuan interval berbasis rata-rata untuk peramalan berdasarkan current state mempunyai kinerja yang baik dengan nilai MAPE berada antara 10% dan 20%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-09-07</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/21868</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v19i1.21868</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 19 No. 1 (2022): SEPTEMBER, 2022; 210-222</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/21868/8622</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v19i1.21868.g8622</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2022 Author and publisher</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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