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Comparison of Forecasting Model Using Chen and Lee High Order Fuzzy Time Series (Farmer’s Terms of Trade of Crops Subsector in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province Case)

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 21 No. 2 (2025) · pp. 467–481

DOI
10.20956/j.v21i2.42000
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2025-01-12
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

The farmer’s terms of trade of food crops subsector (NTPP) in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province has always been below 100 in 2019-2023. Food crops are a substantial agricultural subsector in which its contribution to the PDRB is significant and concerns the food adequacy of the region. NTPP is a proxy indicator to see farmers’ welfare and its value is expected to grow periodically. Therefore, predictive modeling is required to know future NTPP values and to know the purchasing power of food crop farmers. The aim of this research is to compare the accuracy of Chen and Lee model with the high order fuzzy time series for NTPP forecasting in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province. This research uses monthly data from NTPP Nusa Tenggara Timur from January 2016 to October 2024. The research results show that additions up to the 3rd order increase forecast accuracy and the Lee model is more accurate than the Chen model seen from the smaller RMSE and MAPE values. The MAPE values ​​of the 3rd order fuzzy time series Chen and Lee model are 0.5453% and 0.5088% respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the 3rd order Lee model is the most accurate in forecasting NTPP in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province.

Keywords

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Robert KurniawanAffiliation unknown1
Isna Aissatussiri AsshidiqAffiliation unknown1

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Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Comparison of Forecasting Model Using Chen and Lee High Order Fuzzy Time Series (Farmer’s Terms of Trade of Crops Subsector in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province Case)</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Muzaki, Fais</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Agustina, Neli</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">NTPP</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">fuzzy time series</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Chen model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Lee model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">high order</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">The farmer’s terms of trade of food crops subsector (NTPP) in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province has always been below 100 in 2019-2023. Food crops are a substantial agricultural subsector in which its contribution to the PDRB is significant and concerns the food adequacy of the region. NTPP is a proxy indicator to see farmers’ welfare and its value is expected to grow periodically. Therefore, predictive modeling is required to know future NTPP values and to know the purchasing power of food crop farmers. The aim of this research is to compare the accuracy of Chen and Lee model with the high order fuzzy time series for NTPP forecasting in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province. This research uses monthly data from NTPP Nusa Tenggara Timur from January 2016 to October 2024. The research results show that additions up to the 3rd order increase forecast accuracy and the Lee model is more accurate than the Chen model seen from the smaller RMSE and MAPE values. The MAPE values ​​of the 3rd order fuzzy time series Chen and Lee model are 0.5453% and 0.5088% respectively. Based on the MAPE value, the 3rd order Lee model is the most accurate in forecasting NTPP in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province.
 
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	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-01-12</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/42000</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v21i2.42000</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 21 No. 2 (2025): JANUARY 2025; 467-481</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/42000/12446</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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