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Stock Price Forecasting Using Autoregressive With Exogenous Variable Support Vector Regression (ARX – SVR)
Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi
ISSN 2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published 2025-05-14
Publisher Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language en
Abstract
Stock prices move fluctuate continuously and dynamically at all times, so stock price predictions are needed to maximize profits for investors and avoid losses due to the characteristic of stock prices. Autoregressive (AR) model is a forecasting method and has weaknesses against nonlinear patterns. In addition to using linear modeling, forecasting stock prices can use the Support Vector Regression model which offers a global optimal solution that works with data maps to high-dimensional spaces and has good performance with time series problems. The addition of exogenous variables X to the model can also improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting will be done using significant lags as input to Support Vector Regression. The modeling results show that the ARX-SVR model with X as an outlier exogenous variables provides the best out-of-sample data forecasting results for the case study of stock closing price forecasting. This model provides forecasting results with Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE) 5.382430%.
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Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai,
first harvested 5 Nov 2026,
last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc)
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<dc:title xml:lang="en">Stock Price Forecasting Using Autoregressive With Exogenous Variable Support Vector Regression (ARX – SVR)</dc:title>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Widyaningrum, Erlyne Nadhilah</dc:creator>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Putri, Rizka Amalia</dc:creator>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Fathan, Morina A.</dc:creator>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Safitriani, Nur Rezky</dc:creator>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Exogenous Variable</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Forecast</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Stock</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Support Vector Regression</dc:subject>
<dc:description xml:lang="en">Stock prices move fluctuate continuously and dynamically at all times, so stock price predictions are needed to maximize profits for investors and avoid losses due to the characteristic of stock prices. Autoregressive (AR) model is a forecasting method and has weaknesses against nonlinear patterns. In addition to using linear modeling, forecasting stock prices can use the Support Vector Regression model which offers a global optimal solution that works with data maps to high-dimensional spaces and has good performance with time series problems. The addition of exogenous variables X to the model can also improve forecasting accuracy. Forecasting will be done using significant lags as input to Support Vector Regression. The modeling results show that the ARX-SVR model with X as an outlier exogenous variables provides the best out-of-sample data forecasting results for the case study of stock closing price forecasting. This model provides forecasting results with Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE) 5.382430%.</dc:description>
<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
<dc:date>2025-05-14</dc:date>
<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/43613</dc:identifier>
<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v21i3.43613</dc:identifier>
<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 21 No. 3 (2025): MAY 2025; 847-854</dc:source>
<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
<dc:language>en</dc:language>
<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/43613/12811</dc:relation>
<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi</dc:rights>
<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>
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APA 7
Widyaningrum, E. N., Putri, R. A., Fathan, M. A., & Safitriani, N. R. (2025). Stock Price Forecasting Using Autoregressive With Exogenous Variable Support Vector Regression (ARX – SVR). Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi, 21(3), 847–854. https://doi.org/10.20956/j.v21i3.43613
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IEEE
E. N. Widyaningrum, R. A. Putri, M. A. Fathan, and N. R. Safitriani, “Stock Price Forecasting Using Autoregressive With Exogenous Variable Support Vector Regression (ARX – SVR),” Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi, vol. 21, no. 3, pp. 847–854, 2025, doi: 10.20956/j.v21i3.43613.
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