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Modeling the Percentage of Poor Population in West Sumatra in 2024 Using Nonparametric B-Spline Regression

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 22 No. 2 (2026) · pp. 322–337

DOI
10.20956/j.v22i2.47637
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2026-01-10
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

Poverty is a multidimensional issue and remains a major challenge in West Sumatra Province. This study analyzes the percentage of the poor population in 2024 using a nonparametric B-Spline regression approach with the independent variables being the percentage of per capita expenditure on food, the labor force participation rate, and the average length of schooling. Data are sourced from the official publication of the Central Statistics Agency of West Sumatra Province in 2024. The results show that the best model is obtained from the second-order B-Spline regression with one node for each independent variable, based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value. This model produces a coefficient of determination of 92.46% and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 11.02%, indicating high prediction accuracy. Substantively, the average length of schooling has a negative effect on the poverty rate, while food expenditure and labor force participation have varying effects across regions. These findings indicate that B-Spline regression is effective in capturing nonlinear and complex relationships between socioeconomic variables, but its interpretation still needs to consider the empirical context in the field.

Keywords

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Mawanda AlmuhayarAffiliation unknown1
Melin Wanike KetrinAffiliation unknown1

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Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Modeling the Percentage of Poor Population in West Sumatra in 2024 Using Nonparametric B-Spline Regression</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Lathifah, Imroatul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Fitri, Fadhilah</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sari, Fitri Mudia</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">B-Spline regression</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">poverty</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">per capita expenditure</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">labor force participation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">average years of schooling</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Generalized Cross Validation (GCV)</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">West Sumatera</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Poverty is a multidimensional issue and remains a major challenge in West Sumatra Province. This study analyzes the percentage of the poor population in 2024 using a nonparametric B-Spline regression approach with the independent variables being the percentage of per capita expenditure on food, the labor force participation rate, and the average length of schooling. Data are sourced from the official publication of the Central Statistics Agency of West Sumatra Province in 2024. The results show that the best model is obtained from the second-order B-Spline regression with one node for each independent variable, based on the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value. This model produces a coefficient of determination of 92.46% and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 11.02%, indicating high prediction accuracy. Substantively, the average length of schooling has a negative effect on the poverty rate, while food expenditure and labor force participation have varying effects across regions. These findings indicate that B-Spline regression is effective in capturing nonlinear and complex relationships between socioeconomic variables, but its interpretation still needs to consider the empirical context in the field.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-01-10</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/47637</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v22i2.47637</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 22 No. 2 (2026): JANUARY 2026; 322-337</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/47637/13975</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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