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Modeling the U.S. Federal Reserve Influence on Indonesia’s Interest Rates: A Markov-Switching Approach

Business and Economic Analysis Journal · Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025) · hlm. 128–136

DOI
10.15294/beaj.v5i2.34287
ISSN
2798-396X, 2776-9682
Terbit
2025-11-19
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

This study aims to examine how changes in the United States’ monetary policy, such as interest rates and GDP, affect Indonesia’s economic policy, as reflected in Indonesia’s interest rate. The study employs the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) method to analyze these effects, using secondary data obtained from the Federal Reserve. This data includes variables for Indonesia’s and the United States’ interest rates, as well as other control variables. The results show that Indonesia’s interest rate, both in expansionary and contractionary conditions, tends to be influenced by the U.S. interest rate. In contrast, the U.S. GDP has no significant effect on Indonesia’s monetary policy. These findings suggest that external financial conditions, particularly those from the United States, have a significant impact on the economic situation of developing countries, including Indonesia.

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  • State University of Semarang
  • Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Yozi Aulia RahmanAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Puji LestariAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Sri RuntiningsihAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Luthfi Ibnu TsaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Risanda Alirastra BudiantoroAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Ahmad NurkhinAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Iwan Hardi SaputroAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ngabiyanto NgabiyantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Algifari AlgifariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Andryan SetyadharmaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rasyad Nu'manAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
NgabiyantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Moh Aris MunandarAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika PrajantiState University of Semarang1
Agus HermantoUniversitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya1
Avi Budi SetiawanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Mohammad Aulia RochmanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Afifah Nur MillatinaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Fatimatuzzahro FatimatuzzahroAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Prabowo Yudo JayantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ubaedul MustofaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Lailatis SyarifahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Risanda AlirastraAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/beaj/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 5 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Modeling the U.S. Federal Reserve Influence on Indonesia’s Interest Rates: A Markov-Switching Approach</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Wibowo, Bintang Satrio</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Mohammad Aulia Rachman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Ahmad Syahrul Fauzi</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Abi Fadillah</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Interest Rates</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">MSDR</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">US Rates</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study aims to examine how changes in the United States’ monetary policy, such as interest rates and GDP, affect Indonesia’s economic policy, as reflected in Indonesia’s interest rate. The study employs the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression (MSDR) method to analyze these effects, using secondary data obtained from the Federal Reserve. This data includes variables for Indonesia’s and the United States’ interest rates, as well as other control variables. The results show that Indonesia’s interest rate, both in expansionary and contractionary conditions, tends to be influenced by the U.S. interest rate. In contrast, the U.S. GDP has no significant effect on Indonesia’s monetary policy. These findings suggest that external financial conditions, particularly those from the United States, have a significant impact on the economic situation of developing countries, including Indonesia.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-11-19</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/beaj/article/view/34287</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/beaj.v5i2.34287</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Business and Economic Analysis Journal; Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): November 2025; 128-136</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2798-396X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2776-9682</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/beaj.v5i2</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/beaj/article/view/34287/7071</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Business and Economic Analysis Journal</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>