Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Jurnal

Structural Break and The Period of Indonesia’s Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery

Economics Development Analysis Journal · Vol. 10 No. 4 (2021) · hlm. 426–435

DOI
10.15294/edaj.v10i4.46897
ISSN
2252-6560
Terbit
2021-12-04
Penerbit
Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

The Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 caused economic contraction of 2.07 percent in Indonesia. Knowing the similar economic conditions in the past period and how long is the period of Indonesia's economic recovery after the pandemic are important. Therefore, this study aims to determine the period of economic structural break that has occurred in Indonesia and to determine the period of economic recovery. The analytical method used is the Bai-Perron, cointegration test, and VECM. The variables used are economic growth, exports, and inflation. The results of this study indicate the occurrence of structural break periods in the Indonesian economy in 1989, 1998 and 2004. Furthermore, based on the long-term VECM equation, exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. In contrast, inflation has a significant negative impact on economic growth. By using the IRF, it showed that economic growth will achieve stability or recovery after the occurrence of shocks to economic growth itself within a period of 5 to 10 years. If there is a shock to exports, economic stability can be achieved in a period of 5 to 10 years. Meanwhile, if there is a shock to inflation, stability can be achieved in less than 5 years.

Jaringan kolaborasi para penulis

21 penulis · 50 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 3 lintas organisasi

Arahkan kursor atau ketuk sebuah nama untuk menyorot rekan penulisnya. Klik dua kali untuk membuka halaman penulis.

  • Yogyakarta State University
  • University of Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur
  • State University of Semarang
  • Hasanuddin University
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Organisasi berbeda
  • Organisasi sama
  • Afiliasi tidak diketahui
  • Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Hartono HartonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Wahyu LestariYogyakarta State University1
Nur IndahHasanuddin University1
Fajar FajarState University of Semarang1
Tri Marhaeni Pudji AstutiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Totok RochanaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Lusiana Tri LestariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muhammad Arkan HibanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nurul FatimahUniversity of Pembangunan Nasional Veteran Jawa Timur1
Suyahmo SuyahmoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Hartati. .Afiliasi tidak diketahui1
Adithiya DiarAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
HarmainiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Febrian ChandraAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muhyiatul FadilahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rudi Hari MurtiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rani Agustina WulandariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rhea Rowena U. ApolinarioAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Nurmaya PrahatmajaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
JalwisAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/edaj/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Structural Break and The Period of Indonesia’s Post-Pandemic Economic Recovery</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Handayani, Fitri</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 caused economic contraction of 2.07 percent in Indonesia. Knowing the similar economic conditions in the past period and how long is the period of Indonesia's economic recovery after the pandemic are important. Therefore, this study aims to determine the period of economic structural break that has occurred in Indonesia and to determine the period of economic recovery. The analytical method used is the Bai-Perron, cointegration test, and VECM. The variables used are economic growth, exports, and inflation. The results of this study indicate the occurrence of structural break periods in the Indonesian economy in 1989, 1998 and 2004. Furthermore, based on the long-term VECM equation, exports have a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth. In contrast, inflation has a significant negative impact on economic growth. By using the IRF, it showed that economic growth will achieve stability or recovery after the occurrence of shocks to economic growth itself within a period of 5 to 10 years. If there is a shock to exports, economic stability can be achieved in a period of 5 to 10 years. Meanwhile, if there is a shock to inflation, stability can be achieved in less than 5 years.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2021-12-04</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/edaj/article/view/46897</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/edaj.v10i4.46897</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Economics Development Analysis Journal; Vol 10 No 4 (2021): Economics Development Analysis Journal; 426-435</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2252-6560</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/edaj/article/view/46897/20461</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2021 Economics Development Analysis Journal</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>