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Analysis of The Effect of Food Commodity Price Changes on Inflation in Central Java

Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics · Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025) · hlm. 266–280

DOI
10.15294/efficient.v8i3.34838
ISSN
2655-318X, 2655-6197
Terbit
2025-12-01
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

Commodity price movements have a significant impact on regional economic stability, especially in terms of inflation. In Central Java Province, fluctuations in the prices of rice, shallots, curly red chilies, red cayenne peppers, and cooking oil are the main causes of inflation. This phenomenon requires a more in-depth examination of the relationship between price fluctuations and inflation. This means that studies at the regional level are still limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of commodity price changes on inflation in Central Java. The data used is from 2021 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) - Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The data used is monthly secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Food Agency. The estimation results show that in the short term, the variables of curly red chili price, previous period curly red chili price, previous period rice price, and previous period cooking oil price have a significant effect on inflation, while in the long term, curly red chili price has a positive effect and rice price has a negative effect on inflation in Central Java. The CointEq(-1) coefficient, which has a value of -0.106705 and is significant, indicates the existence of a correction mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. This value suggests that around 10.67% of the deviation of inflation from its equilibrium in the previous period is adjusted or corrected during the current period.

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  • State University of Semarang
  • State University of Malang
  • Indonesia Open University
  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • Universitas Nurul Huda
  • Sebelas Maret University
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Talitha WidiatningrumState University of Semarang4
Etty Puji LestariIndonesia Open University3
Edi KurniawanState University of Semarang3
Shanty OktaviliaState University of Semarang3
Etty SoesilowatiState University of Semarang2
R. Benny RiyantoState University of Semarang2
Widiyanto WidiyantoState University of Semarang2
Fauzul AdzimState University of Semarang2
Amin PujiatiState University of Semarang2
Dhea Rizky AmeliaState University of Semarang2
Christina LitaayNational Research and Innovation Agency2
Subiyanto SubiyantoState University of Semarang1
Nur Azis SalimState University of Semarang1
Setya Budi Arif PrabowoState University of Semarang1
Deyndrawan SutrisnoState University of Semarang1
Andika AnantyoState University of Semarang1
Dewi AnggrianiState University of Semarang1
Nana Kariada Tri MartutiState University of Semarang1
Arief YuliantoState University of Semarang1
Margareta RahayuningsihState University of Semarang1
S. MartonoState University of Semarang1
Aldias BahatmakaState University of Semarang1
Markus DiantoroState University of Malang1
Herlin PujiartiState University of Malang1
Prihatini RetnaningsihState University of Malang1
Aji Prasetya WibawaState University of Malang1
Mutiara KiranawatiState University of Malang1
Lukluk Ul MuyassarohState University of Malang1
Said Nur OctaviantoState University of Semarang1
Sri Eka WulandariState University of Semarang1
Widiyanto WidiyantoSebelas Maret University1
Khafid IsmailUniversitas Nurul Huda1
Kardoyo KardoyoState University of Semarang1
Yuan Fence IralaState University of Semarang1
Retno GinanjarState University of Semarang1
Murtaziqotul KhoirohState University of Semarang1
Siti EhaState University of Semarang1
Adika Nur RahmawanState University of Semarang1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/oai, pertama di-harvest 5 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analysis of The Effect of Food Commodity Price Changes on Inflation in Central Java</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Azzahra Tribuana Alim </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ARDL</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ECM</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Food Commodities</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Price</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Commodity price movements have a significant impact on regional economic stability, especially in terms of inflation. In Central Java Province, fluctuations in the prices of rice, shallots, curly red chilies, red cayenne peppers, and cooking oil are the main causes of inflation. This phenomenon requires a more in-depth examination of the relationship between price fluctuations and inflation. This means that studies at the regional level are still limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of commodity price changes on inflation in Central Java. The data used is from 2021 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) - Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The data used is monthly secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Food Agency. The estimation results show that in the short term, the variables of curly red chili price, previous period curly red chili price, previous period rice price, and previous period cooking oil price have a significant effect on inflation, while in the long term, curly red chili price has a positive effect and rice price has a negative effect on inflation in Central Java. The CointEq(-1) coefficient, which has a value of -0.106705 and is significant, indicates the existence of a correction mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. This value suggests that around 10.67% of the deviation of inflation from its equilibrium in the previous period is adjusted or corrected during the current period.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-12-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/article/view/34838</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/efficient.v8i3.34838</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics; Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025); 266-280</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2655-318X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2655-6197</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/pjseyt07</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/article/view/34838/7382</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>