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Automation of Sprint Cost Estimation in Agile Projects Using a Random Forest-Based Decision Support System

Scientific Journal of Informatics · Vol. 13 No. 3 (2026) · hlm. 743–750

DOI
10.15294/sji.v13i3.58315
ISSN
2407-7658, 2460-0040
Terbit
2026-08-29
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

Purpose: The manual construction of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is inherently susceptible to human cognitive biases; hence, the objective of this research shifts toward Intelligent Automation, leveraging a Decision Support System (DSS) to replicate expert financial logic. Methods: The dataset comprises 30 validated sprint records from 23 internal projects; other WBS documents were excluded due to incomplete sprint details. Pre-processing involved completeness checks and One-Hot Encoding of team role compositions, without feature scaling. A Decision Tree Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and Hybrid Model (Voting Regressor) were evaluated using 3-fold cross-validation based on MAPE, RMSE, and R² metrics. Result: The Random Forest Regressor demonstrated the best relative performance among the three models, achieving a MAPE of 23.55%, an RMSE of IDR 35.27 million, and an R² of -0.535. Across the 30 sprint predictions, the Random Forest model showed a mean deviation of 23.55% ± 31.69%, a median of 9.98%, and a range of 0.78%–125.33%, highlighting performance variation across sprints and supporting the model's application within a human-in-the-loop framework. Feature importance analysis identified `sprint_duration_days` as the dominant feature, followed by `role_programmer_jr` and `role_qa_sr`. Novelty: These findings demonstrate the system's practical contribution, particularly in streamlining budgeting bureaucracy by accelerating the process from days of manual preparation to just a few minutes through automated execution.

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  • Bandung Institute of Technology
  • Telkom University
  • The University of Western Australia
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Suhono Harso SupangkatBandung Institute of Technology1
Suhardi SuhardiBandung Institute of Technology1
Roberd SaragihBandung Institute of Technology1
Edi Triono NuryatnoThe University of Western Australia1
Hanif FakhrurrojaTelkom University1
Safara Cathasa Riverinda RijadiTelkom University1
Rika MulyatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Adi RaharjoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ferry AgustienAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Djoko PriyadiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Joko SiswantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Muharman LubisAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Jan M. PawlowskiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Syfa Nur LathifahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Litasari Widyastuti SuwarsonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc)
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Automation of Sprint Cost Estimation in Agile Projects Using a Random Forest-Based Decision Support System</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Hikmah, Faidatul</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Suakanto, Sinung</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Agile Sprint Cost</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Decision Support System</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Feature Importance</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Software Cost Estimation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Random Forest Regressor</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Purpose: The manual construction of a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is inherently susceptible to human cognitive biases; hence, the objective of this research shifts toward Intelligent Automation, leveraging a Decision Support System (DSS) to replicate expert financial logic.
Methods: The dataset comprises 30 validated sprint records from 23 internal projects; other WBS documents were excluded due to incomplete sprint details. Pre-processing involved completeness checks and One-Hot Encoding of team role compositions, without feature scaling. A Decision Tree Regressor, Random Forest Regressor, and Hybrid Model (Voting Regressor) were evaluated using 3-fold cross-validation based on MAPE, RMSE, and R² metrics.
Result: The Random Forest Regressor demonstrated the best relative performance among the three models, achieving a MAPE of 23.55%, an RMSE of IDR 35.27 million, and an R² of -0.535. Across the 30 sprint predictions, the Random Forest model showed a mean deviation of 23.55% ± 31.69%, a median of 9.98%, and a range of 0.78%–125.33%, highlighting performance variation across sprints and supporting the model's application within a human-in-the-loop framework. Feature importance analysis identified `sprint_duration_days` as the dominant feature, followed by `role_programmer_jr` and `role_qa_sr`.
Novelty: These findings demonstrate the system's practical contribution, particularly in streamlining budgeting bureaucracy by accelerating the process from days of manual preparation to just a few minutes through automated execution.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-08-29</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/view/58315</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/sji.v13i3.58315</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Scientific Journal of Informatics; Vol. 13 No. 3: Special Issue; 743-750</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2407-7658</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-0040</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/sji.v13i3</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/sji/article/view/58315/11255</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Scientific Journal of Informatics</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>