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Inflation Forecasting in Indonesia Using Lee’s Fuzzy Time Series Method

Unnes Journal of Mathematics · Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025) · hlm. 16–22

DOI
10.15294/ujm.v14i1.14215
ISSN
2460-5859, 2252-6943
Terbit
2025-06-14
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

Inflation is an important economic indicator, the rate of growth is should be low and stable. Unstable inflation will complicate people's decisions to consume, invest and produce which in turn will reduce economic growth. One of the effects of this inflation is slow economic growth. For this reason, the government needs to consider policies that can influence it. Bank Indonesia one of the policies to control inflation is monetary. Forecasting methods are used to help facilitate future planning and can be used as guidelines for decision making that can improve economic performance. Forecasting used is fuzzy time series Lee. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for the period January 2017-May 2022. The error rate used is MAPE which produces a very good MAPE value of 8,16%. Forecasting results for the next period, June 2022, amounted to 3,66%.

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  • State University of Semarang
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Bambang Eko SusiloState University of Semarang2
Trida Ridho FarizState University of Semarang2
Sri SukaesihState University of Semarang2
Siti WahyuniAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Aditya MariantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Nuni WidiartiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
M. Faris Al HakimAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Karista Gadis SetiyandaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
M. Faris Al HakimAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Faith Miftah MaulanaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Birru Asia RayaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Faiza Al Laily NasronAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Neli Septiana PutriAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Novita Sari ParapatAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Inflation Forecasting in Indonesia Using Lee’s Fuzzy Time Series Method</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sari, Virgania</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Fuzzy Time Series</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Lee model</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Inflation is an important economic indicator, the rate of growth is should be low and stable. Unstable inflation will complicate people's decisions to consume, invest and produce which in turn will reduce economic growth. One of the effects of this inflation is slow economic growth. For this reason, the government needs to consider policies that can influence it. Bank Indonesia one of the policies to control inflation is monetary. Forecasting methods are used to help facilitate future planning and can be used as guidelines for decision making that can improve economic performance. Forecasting used is fuzzy time series Lee. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for the period January 2017-May 2022. The error rate used is MAPE which produces a very good MAPE value of 8,16%. Forecasting results for the next period, June 2022, amounted to 3,66%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-06-14</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/view/14215</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/ujm.v14i1.14215</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Unnes Journal of Mathematics; Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): Unnes Journal of Mathematics Volume 1, 2025; 16-22</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-5859</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2252-6943</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/ujm.v14i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/view/14215/4410</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Unnes Journal of Mathematics</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>