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The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents

Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah · Vol. 12 No. 5 (2024) · hlm. 421–442

DOI
10.22437/ppd.v12i5.37663
ISSN
2355-8520, 2338-4603
Terbit
2024-12-31
Penerbit
Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi
Bahasa
en
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstrak

This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics.

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/index.php/JES/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">A'la, Ahmad Zidni Nuuron</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sucipto, Agus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Yuliana, Indah</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Consumer confidence index</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Global stock market performance</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Interest rates</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi  Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-12-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22437/ppd.v12i5.37663</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; Vol. 12 No. 5 (2024): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; 421 - 442</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2355-8520</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2338-4603</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663/19990</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la, Agus Sucipto, Indah Yuliana</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>