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Fertility decline and economic growth challenges: Japan's struggle amid a demographic crisis

Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah · Vol. 13 No. 1 (2025) · hlm. 22–36

DOI
10.22437/ppd.v13i1.38209
ISSN
2355-8520, 2338-4603
Terbit
2025-04-30
Penerbit
Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi
Bahasa
en
Lisensi
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstrak

This study examines the impact of demographic factors, particularly declining fertility rates and an aging population, on Japan’s economic growth from 1960 to 2022. Additionally, it analyzes key macroeconomic variables, including healthcare expenditure, interest rates, and inflation, that influence the country’s economy. Using quantitative time-series data and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this research evaluates the short- and long-term effects of these variables on economic growth. The findings indicate that, in the long run, population aging and high interest rates significantly negatively affect economic growth. In contrast, healthcare expenditure and moderate inflation have a positive impact. Population aging slows economic expansion by increasing pension and healthcare costs, while high interest rates discourage investment and consumption. Conversely, healthcare expenditure, as an investment in human capital, enhances labor productivity, and moderate inflation stimulates economic activity by promoting consumption and investment. However, in the short term, none of these variables exhibit a significant impact on economic growth, suggesting that policy measures and demographic changes require time to influence the broader economy.

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  • Sriwijaya University
  • Universitas Islam Negeri Ar-Raniry
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Nasywa Anindita AthaullahSriwijaya University2
Deassy AprianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Bernadette RobianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Imam AsngariSriwijaya University1
GustrianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Inaya Nabilla RamadhaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
M. SubardinSriwijaya University1
Abdul BashirSriwijaya University1
Taufiq MarwaSriwijaya University1
Sukanto SukantoSriwijaya University1
Azwardi AzwardiSriwijaya University1
Sukanto SukantoSriwijaya University1
Mukhlis MukhlisSriwijaya University1
Dirta Pratama AtiyatnaSriwijaya University1
Khairan ARUniversitas Islam Negeri Ar-Raniry1
Mira MaisuraAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Malahayati MalahayatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

Afiliasi berasal dari OpenAlex; metadata OAI-PMH jurnal tidak memuatnya. Penulis tanpa ID OpenAlex dicocokkan berdasarkan nama, sehingga dua orang bisa tergabung atau satu orang bisa terpisah.

Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/index.php/JES/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Fertility decline and economic growth challenges: Japan's struggle amid a demographic crisis</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Hamira, Hamira</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Atiyatna, Dirta Pratama</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Marissa, Feny</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sari, Dwi Darma Puspita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Khairunnas, Khairunnas</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Economic growth</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Fertility</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Health expenditure</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Interest rate</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Population  aging</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study examines the impact of demographic factors, particularly declining fertility rates and an aging population, on Japan’s economic growth from 1960 to 2022. Additionally, it analyzes key macroeconomic variables, including healthcare expenditure, interest rates, and inflation, that influence the country’s economy. Using quantitative time-series data and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), this research evaluates the short- and long-term effects of these variables on economic growth. The findings indicate that, in the long run, population aging and high interest rates significantly negatively affect economic growth. In contrast, healthcare expenditure and moderate inflation have a positive impact. Population aging slows economic expansion by increasing pension and healthcare costs, while high interest rates discourage investment and consumption. Conversely, healthcare expenditure, as an investment in human capital, enhances labor productivity, and moderate inflation stimulates economic activity by promoting consumption and investment. However, in the short term, none of these variables exhibit a significant impact on economic growth, suggesting that policy measures and demographic changes require time to influence the broader economy.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi  Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-04-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/38209</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22437/ppd.v13i1.38209</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; Vol. 13 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; 22 - 36</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2355-8520</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2338-4603</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/38209/20747</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Hamira Hamira, Dirta Pratama Atiyatna, Feny Marissa, Dwi Darma Puspita Sari, Khairunnas Khairunnas</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>