Research on the impact of sliding window and differencing procedures on the support vector regression model for load forecasting

Abstract

Load forecasting is a critical aspect of energy management and grid operations. Machine learning techniques as support vector regression (SVR), have been widely used for load forecasting. However, the effectiveness of SVR is highly dependent on its hyperparameters, including the error sensitivity parameter, penalty factor, and kernel function. Furthermore, as the load data follows a time series pattern, the accuracy of the SVR model is influenced by the data's characteristics. In this regard, the present study aims to investigate the impact of combining the sliding window procedure and differencing the input data on the prediction accuracy of the SVR model. The study utilizes daily maximum load data from the Queensland and Victoria states in Australia. The analyses revealed that while the sliding window procedure had a minimal impact on the prediction results, the differencing of the input data significantly improved the accuracy of the predictions.