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Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Pemodelan Transmisi COVID-19 dan Evaluasi Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar di Jakarta, Indonesia

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences · Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022) · pp. 90–100

DOI
10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6
ISSN
2549-2896
Published
2022-08-02
Publisher
The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0

Abstract

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 102 co-authorship links · 5 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • National Research and Innovation Agency
  • State University of Semarang
  • Universitas Halu Oleo
  • Bandung Institute of Technology
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Muhammad FakhruddinAffiliation unknown4
Mochamad ApriBandung Institute of Technology4
KhumaediState University of Semarang3
Edy SoewonoAffiliation unknown3
Dwi YuliantiState University of Semarang2
Suharto LinuwihAffiliation unknown2
Ani RusilowatiState University of Semarang2
Susilo SusiloAffiliation unknown2
Fianti FiantiAffiliation unknown2
Putut MarwotoState University of Semarang2
Ismi LutfinurAffiliation unknown2
Akbari Indra BasukiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Didi RosiyadiNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Iwan Rizal SetiawanNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Taufik Ibnu SalimNational Research and Innovation Agency1
Resman ResmanAffiliation unknown1
Sahta GintingUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Sitti LeomoUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Namriah NamriahUniversitas Halu Oleo1
DARWIS DARWISAffiliation unknown1
Enis NurnawatiAffiliation unknown1
Yunita Putri SuyantoAffiliation unknown1
Fathur RohimAffiliation unknown1
EllianawatiAffiliation unknown1
Rina Dewi HapsariAffiliation unknown1
ErnawatiAffiliation unknown1
Ngurah Made D. PutraAffiliation unknown1
Atiko Marta PutriAffiliation unknown1
Siti KhanafiahAffiliation unknown1
KhanifahAffiliation unknown1
- MalindaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/oai, first harvested 8 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:title xml:lang="id-ID">Pemodelan Transmisi COVID-19 dan Evaluasi Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar di Jakarta, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Hasan, Agus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nasution, Yuki</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Hadi Susanto</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Endah Putri</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Venansius Tjahjono</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Dila Puspita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Kamal Sukandar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Nuning Nuraini</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Widyastuti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Compartmental model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">reproduction number</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">infectious diseases</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">92B99</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">34L99</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">65P99</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt &amp;lt; 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">The Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-08-02</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/17778</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1.6</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Communication in Biomathematical Sciences; Vol. 5 No. 1 (2022); 90-100</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2549-2896</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.5614/cbms.2022.5.1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journals.itb.ac.id/index.php/cbms/article/view/17778/5891</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2022 Communication in Biomathematical Sciences</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>