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Stock price forecast of macro-economic factor using recurrent neural network

IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence · Vol. 10 No. 1 (2021) · pp. 74–83

DOI
10.11591/ijai.v10.i1.pp74-83
ISSN
2252-8938, 2089-4872
Published
2021-03-01
Publisher
Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The stock market is one of the investment choices that always have traction from time to time. Aside from being a means of corporate funding, investing in the stock market can benefit investors. Investing also has a higher risk because the pattern of stock prices is volatile, which is caused by internal and external factors. One external factor that affects stock prices is the macro-economic, where these factors are events that occur in a country where one of the economic sectors affected is stock prices. Investors often feel confused about the right time in decisions making related to buying or selling stock. One way to look at how the prospect of stock prices is a stock price forecasting activity. For this study, we will be making use of the recurrent neural network (RNN) to forecast stock prices for the next periods. This research involves two variables: the closing stock price and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar for the daily period. We achieve a MAPE value of 1.546% for RNN model without the variable foreign exchange rate and 1.558% for the RNN model that uses the foreign exchange rate against the dollar.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

29 authors · 88 co-authorship links

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
  • Islamic University of Indonesia
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Wiwik AnggraeniInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember5
I Gusti Agung PremanandaInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember4
Retno Aulia VinartiAffiliation unknown3
Mursyidatun NabilahAffiliation unknown3
Shof Rijal Ahlan RobbaniAffiliation unknown2
Anang FirdausInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Vicha Azthanty SupoyoInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Febriliyan SamopaInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Radityo Prasetianto WibowoInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Tresnaning ArifiyahInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Pujiadi PujiadiAffiliation unknown1
Siti Aminatus ZehrohInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Nur Aini LestariInstitut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember1
Hendra SetiawanIslamic University of Indonesia1
Alvin SahroniAffiliation unknown1
Hasballah ZakariaAffiliation unknown1
Yeyen SudiartiAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad Ilham PerdanaAffiliation unknown1
Adri Gabriel SooaiAffiliation unknown1
Yusnardo TendioAffiliation unknown1
Helena Angelita DepariAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad Arif NurimanAffiliation unknown1
I Gusti Agung PremanandaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) http://ijai.iaescore.com/index.php/IJAI/oai, first harvested 8 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc)
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">Stock price forecast of macro-economic factor using recurrent neural network</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Reza Pahlawan, M.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Riksakomara, Edwin</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Tyasnurita, Raras</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Muklason, Ahmad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Mahananto, Faizal</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>A. Vinarti, Retno</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US"></dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en-US">Exchange rate; Recurrent neural network; Stock forecast</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The stock market is one of the investment choices that always have traction from time to time. Aside from being a means of corporate funding, investing in the stock market can benefit investors. Investing also has a higher risk because the pattern of stock prices is volatile, which is caused by internal and external factors. One external factor that affects stock prices is the macro-economic, where these factors are events that occur in a country where one of the economic sectors affected is stock prices. Investors often feel confused about the right time in decisions making related to buying or selling stock. One way to look at how the prospect of stock prices is a stock price forecasting activity. For this study, we will be making use of the recurrent neural network (RNN) to forecast stock prices for the next periods. This research involves two variables: the closing stock price and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar for the daily period. We achieve a MAPE value of 1.546% for RNN model without the variable foreign exchange rate and 1.558% for the RNN model that uses the foreign exchange rate against the dollar.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science</dc:publisher>
	<dc:contributor xml:lang="en-US"></dc:contributor>
	<dc:date>2021-03-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US"></dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ijai.iaescore.com/index.php/IJAI/article/view/20722</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.11591/ijai.v10.i1.pp74-83</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI); Vol 10, No 1: March 2021; 74-83</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2252-8938</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2089-4872</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.11591/ijai.v10.i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ijai.iaescore.com/index.php/IJAI/article/view/20722/13063</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2020 Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>