Open access
Journal
SINTA 1
Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method
Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas
ISSN 2541-0520, 2089-3361
Published 2025-03-14
Publisher Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS
Language eng
Abstract
Household sector is significantly influenced by population and economic factors, which are two key variables in energy consumption projections. For example, the selection of East Kalimantan as the location for the Nusantara Capital City through Law Number 3 of 2022 increased the household energy consumption in the area. It was observed that cooking and electricity needs were dominated by the usage of oil and gas, leading to the need for energy system modeling to design appropriate energy policies, avoid dependence on fossil fuels, and control CO2 emissions in the future. Therefore, this research aims to forecast oil and gas demand of households up to 2060 based on several scenarios. A bottom-up method was dynamically connected to multiple variables for the forecast due to its ability to provide essential feedback loops, delays, and interactions required for energy system. The results showed that Business as Usual (BaU) scenario led to 28,96 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) and 8,09 million tons of emission in 2060 while Indonesian Capital City (IKN) scenario had 35,65 million and 9,8 million tons respectively. It was further reported that low carbon (LC) scenario produced 3,5 million tons of emissions.
Collaboration network of the authors
17 authors ·
49 co-authorship links
Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.
Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.
Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/oai, first harvested 10 Nov 2026, last seen 10 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc)
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
<dc:title xml:lang="en">Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method</dc:title>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Jumardi, Andi</dc:creator>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Yusgiantoro, Purnomo</dc:creator>
<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Siagian, Utjok</dc:creator>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">CO2 emission</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">energy system modeling</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">energy transition</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">oil and gas demand</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="en">system dynamic</dc:subject>
<dc:description xml:lang="en">Household sector is significantly influenced by population and economic factors, which are two key variables in energy consumption projections. For example, the selection of East Kalimantan as the location for the Nusantara Capital City through Law Number 3 of 2022 increased the household energy consumption in the area. It was observed that cooking and electricity needs were dominated by the usage of oil and gas, leading to the need for energy system modeling to design appropriate energy policies, avoid dependence on fossil fuels, and control CO2 emissions in the future. Therefore, this research aims to forecast oil and gas demand of households up to 2060 based on several scenarios. A bottom-up method was dynamically connected to multiple variables for the forecast due to its ability to provide essential feedback loops, delays, and interactions required for energy system. The results showed that Business as Usual (BaU) scenario led to 28,96 million Barrel Oil Equivalent (BOE) and 8,09 million tons of emission in 2060 while Indonesian Capital City (IKN) scenario had 35,65 million and 9,8 million tons respectively. It was further reported that low carbon (LC) scenario produced 3,5 million tons of emissions.</dc:description>
<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Testing Center for Oil and Gas LEMIGAS</dc:publisher>
<dc:date>2025-03-14</dc:date>
<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
<dc:identifier>https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/article/view/1732</dc:identifier>
<dc:identifier>10.29017/scog.v48i1.1732</dc:identifier>
<dc:source xml:lang="en">Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas; Vol. 48 No. 1 (2025); 159-177</dc:source>
<dc:source xml:lang="id">Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas; Vol 48 No 1 (2025); 159-177</dc:source>
<dc:source>2541-0520</dc:source>
<dc:source>2089-3361</dc:source>
<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
<dc:relation>https://journal.lemigas.esdm.go.id/index.php/SCOG/article/view/1732/1362</dc:relation>
<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 © Copyright by Authors. Published by LEMIGAS</dc:rights>
<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>
Citations and indexing
OpenAlex
Not checked
Crossref
Not checked
Cite this article
APA 7
Jumardi, A., Yusgiantoro, P., & Siagian, U. (2025). Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method. Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas, 48(1), 159–177. https://doi.org/10.29017/scog.v48i1.1732
Copy
IEEE
A. Jumardi, P. Yusgiantoro, and U. Siagian, “Development of Energy System Modeling to Forecast 2060 Oil and Gas Demand in The Household Sector of East Kalimantan Using Bottom-Up Method,” Scientific Contributions Oil and Gas, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 159–177, 2025, doi: 10.29017/scog.v48i1.1732.
Copy
Generated from the journal's metadata; check author names before use.