The Influence of the Global Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phenomenon with the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Papua Province

Abstract

English

Tropical areas such as Indonesia are ocean areas that show convective activity responses that affect the global climate balance in space and time. The equatorial region, especially Indonesia, is subject to very complex ocean-atmospheric phenomena which are influenced by many factors and phenomena such as the Monsoon/Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Tropical Cyclone. /Temperate Forcing, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This journal focuses on discussing two phenomena, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Pacific Decagonal Oscillation (PDO) in Papua (East Indonesia). This study uses an empirical approach with statistical calculations based on the PDO variable in the form of the PDO index, the amplitude variable which represents the MJO data and the rainfall for the province of Papua. Data for these two variables were obtained from NOAA and BoM, as well as rainfall data obtained from NASA. The data period analyzed was 40 years from 1981 to 2020. Two dates were filtered and correlations were analyzed using a simple linear regression method. The results of this research show that PDO is associated with MJO in Papua. This is clearly seen from the results of the correlation of the two phenomena. In addition, these two phenomena also affect the increase or decrease in rainfall in Papua. The second impact of this phenomenon on Papua (eastern part of the archipelago) is caused by the circulation of sea water from the Pacific Ocean through the Indonesian Toughflow.

Indonesian

Kawasan tropis seperti Indonesia merupakan kawasan lautan yang menunjukkan respon aktivitas konvektif yang mempengaruhi keseimbangan iklim global dalam ruang dan waktu. Wilayah khatulistiwa, khususnya Indonesia, tunduk pada fenomena atmosfer-laut yang sangat kompleks yang dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor dan fenomena seperti Monsoon/Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Tropical Cyclone/Temperate Forcing, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), dan Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Jurnal ini berfokus pada pembahasan dua fenomena global yaitu Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) dan Pacific Decagonal Oscillation (PDO) di Papua (Indonesia Timur). Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan empiris dengan perhitungan statistik berdasarkan variabel PDO berupa indeks PDO, variabel amplitudo yang mewakili data MJO dan curah hujan provinsi Papua. Data kedua variabel tersebut diperoleh dari NOAA dan BoM, serta data curah hujan diperoleh dari NASA. Periode data yang dianalisis adalah 40 tahun dari tahun 1981 sampai dengan tahun 2020. Dua tanggal disaring dan korelasi dianalisis menggunakan metode regresi linier sederhana. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa PDO berasosiasi dengan MJO di Papua. Hal ini terlihat jelas dari hasil korelasi kedua fenomena tersebut. Selain itu, kedua fenomena tersebut juga mempengaruhi peningkatan atau penurunan curah hujan di Papua. Dampak kedua dari fenomena ini di Papua (bagian timur nusantara) disebabkan oleh sirkulasi air laut dari Samudra Pasifik melalui aliran Indonesian Toughflow.

Keywords

• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Madden-Julian Oscillation
• Curah Hujan
• Perbaikan format penulisan daftar pustaka
• Rainfall
• Papua
• Linear regression.