Department of Agribusiness, Halu Oleo University Jointly with Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (PERHEPI/ISAE)
This study examines the competitive structure and trade patterns of Indonesian palm oil exports to China within the ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) framework, focusing on crude (HS 151110) and refined (HS 151190) product categories from 2013–2024. Unlike prior studies that rely on aggregated commodity data or single-method approaches, this paper integrates Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), and Intra-Industry Trade (IIT) analysis to produce a more comprehensive picture of Indonesia's export competitiveness relative to Malaysia and other ACFTA members. Using UN Comtrade time-series data, the findings show that Indonesia maintains a strong, persistent comparative advantage in both HS categories, with RCA values consistently above unity and TSI values near +1, confirming its structural position as a dominant net exporter. However, IIT indices remain consistently low across both categories, indicating that bilateral palm oil trade with China is characterized by inter-industry exchange rather than two-way differentiated trade. This structural asymmetry signals limited downstream integration and product diversification in Indonesia's current export profile. This study's key contribution is demonstrating that Indonesia's competitiveness in primary palm oil exports coexists with a notable weakness in value-added product differentiation, a finding with direct implications for trade and industrial policy under ACFTA.
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