Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Journal SINTA 3

DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC DENGUE EPIDEMIC MODEL: EXPLORING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 16 No. 2 (2022) · pp. 583–596

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp583-596
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2022-06-01
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng

Abstract

Dengue, a vector-borne disease, threatens the life of humans in tropical and subtropical regions. Hence, the dengue transmission dynamics need to be studied. An important aspect to be investigated is the probability of extinction. In this paper, deterministic and stochastic dengue epidemic models with two-age classes have been developed and analyzed, and the probability of extinction has been determined. For the stochastic approach, we use the Continuous-Time Markov Chain model. The results show that vaccination of adult individuals leads to a lower number of adult infected individuals. Furthermore, the results showed that a higher number of initial infections causes a low probability of dengue extinction. Furthermore, factors contributing to an increase in the infection-related parameters have to be minimized to increase the potential reduction of dengue cases.

Collaboration network of the authors

13 authors · 22 co-authorship links · 6 across different organisations

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • University of Nusa Cendana
  • Sebelas Maret University
  • Universitas Ahmad Dahlan
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Esther Y. BungaUniversity of Nusa Cendana1
Laila FitrianaSebelas Maret University1
Ario WirayaSebelas Maret University1
Triyanto TriyantoSebelas Maret University1
Amellia PutriSebelas Maret University1
Anisa Sukma LinartaUniversitas Ahmad Dahlan1
Maria LoboUniversity of Nusa Cendana1
Ervin Mawo BanniAffiliation unknown1
Maria A KledenAffiliation unknown1
Julieta B.A. RadjaAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC DENGUE EPIDEMIC MODEL: EXPLORING THE PROBABILITY OF EXTINCTION</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Ndii, Meksianis Z.</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Adi, Yudi Ari</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Djahi, Bertha S</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Dengue, a vector-borne disease, threatens the life of humans in tropical and subtropical regions. Hence, the dengue transmission dynamics need to be studied. An important aspect to be investigated is the probability of extinction. In this paper, deterministic and stochastic dengue epidemic models with two-age classes have been developed and analyzed, and the probability of extinction has been determined. &amp;nbsp;For the stochastic approach, we use the Continuous-Time Markov Chain model. The results show that vaccination of adult individuals leads to a lower number of adult infected individuals. Furthermore, the results showed that a higher number of initial infections causes a low probability of dengue extinction. Furthermore, factors contributing to an increase in the infection-related parameters have to be minimized to increase the potential reduction of dengue cases.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2022-06-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/5247</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol16iss2pp583-596</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 16 No 2 (2022): BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; 583-596</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol16iss2year2022</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/5247/4488</dc:relation>
</oai_dc:dc>