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JCI MODELING IN INDONESIA BASED ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX WITH LOCAL POLYNOMIAL ESTIMATOR APPROACH

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 17 No. 3 (2023) · pp. 1277–1286

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1277-1286
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2023-09-30
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The industrial sector is the leading sector that contributes the most to Indonesia's economic growth. Industry can be caused by various factors, one of which is the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). Indonesian stock prices have a high variance that requires proper modeling. Therefore, this study uses a local polynomial nonparametric regression approach. This study aims to estimate and obtain the best JCI model based on the production index of large and medium industries using a local polynomial estimator and also knowing the accuracy of the JCI model based on the production index of large and medium industries. The data used in this study is secondary data using production index data for medium-large industries and data on the composite stock index in Indonesia in the form of Time series which were obtained through the Central Statistics Agency Publication website on the page www.bps.go.id. JCI modeling in Indonesia based on the production index of large and medium industries is most effective on local polynomials with polynomial degree two which obtains an optimal bandwidth of 7,8795 with a minimum Cross-Validation (CV) value of 163170,3 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 9,1%. From the MAPE value it is said that the model is good for making future predictions.

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 113 co-authorship links · 3 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • Universitas Airlangga
  • Universitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Toha SaifudinUniversitas Airlangga7
Dita AmeliaUniversitas Airlangga4
Qumadha Zaenal AbidinAffiliation unknown3
Alma Khalisa RahmaUniversitas Airlangga3
Bagas Shata PratamaUniversitas Airlangga2
Rien RecyliaUniversitas Airlangga2
Belindha Ayu ArdhaniUniversitas Airlangga1
Nia SaurinaUniversitas Wijaya Kusuma Surabaya1
Riries RulaningtyasUniversitas Airlangga1
Aryati AryatiUniversitas Airlangga1
Naufal Ramadhan Al Akhwal SiregarUniversitas Airlangga1
Muhammad Fikry Al FariziUniversitas Airlangga1
Atikah FaizaUniversitas Airlangga1
Muhammad Hilmi FibryanUniversitas Airlangga1
Alda Fuadiyah SuryonoUniversitas Airlangga1
Nina AuliyahUniversitas Airlangga1
Alfi Nur NitasariUniversitas Airlangga1
Andini Sa’idahUniversitas Airlangga1
Nurin FaizunUniversitas Airlangga1
Kezia Eunike DarmawanUniversitas Airlangga1
Marfa Audilla FitriUniversitas Airlangga1
Muhammad Althof JuniarUniversitas Airlangga1
Azzahra FaniaUniversitas Airlangga1
Diana UlyaUniversitas Airlangga1
Rico RamadhanUniversitas Airlangga1
Nadhira Safa KamiilahUniversitas Airlangga1
Putu Eka AndrianiUniversitas Airlangga1
Cynthia Anggelyn SiburianUniversitas Airlangga1
Muhammad Rizaldy BaihaqiUniversitas Airlangga1
Salma Bethari Andjani SumartoUniversitas Airlangga1
Steven SoewignjoUniversitas Airlangga1
Ni Wayan Widya Septia SariUniversitas Airlangga1
Andini Putri MedianiUniversitas Airlangga1
M. Aqil Zaidan KamilUniversitas Airlangga1
Ardana Tegar HendrawanUniversitas Airlangga1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">JCI MODELING IN INDONESIA BASED ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX WITH LOCAL POLYNOMIAL ESTIMATOR APPROACH</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Hidayat, Rizky Ismaul Uyun</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Prasetyo, Juan Krisfigo</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Larasati, Berliani</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Aisharezka, Mutiara</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Chamidah, Nur</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The industrial sector is the leading sector that contributes the most to Indonesia's economic growth. Industry can be caused by various factors, one of which is the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). Indonesian stock prices have a high variance that requires proper modeling. Therefore, this study uses a local polynomial nonparametric regression approach. &amp;nbsp;This study aims to estimate and obtain the best JCI model based on the production index of large and medium industries using a local polynomial estimator and also knowing the accuracy of the JCI model based on the production index of large and medium industries. The data used in this study is secondary data using production index data for medium-large industries and data on the composite stock index in Indonesia in the form of Time series which were obtained through the Central Statistics Agency Publication website on the page www.bps.go.id. JCI modeling in Indonesia based on the production index of large and medium industries is most effective on local polynomials with polynomial degree two which obtains an optimal bandwidth of 7,8795 with a minimum Cross-Validation (CV) value of 163170,3 and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 9,1%. From the MAPE value it is said that the model is good for making future predictions.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2023-09-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7959</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3pp1277-1286</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 17 No 3 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications; 1277-1286</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol17iss3year2023</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/7959/6542</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2023 Rizky Ismaul Uyun Hidayat, Juan Krisfigo Prasetyo, Berliani Larasati, Mutiara Aisharezka, Nur Chamidah</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
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