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MODELING CRIME IN EAST JAVA USING SPATIAL DURBIN MODEL REGRESSION

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 18 No. 3 (2024) · pp. 1497–1508

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1497-1508
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2024-07-31
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

The high crime rate will create unrest and losses for the community. One of the provinces with high crime rates is East Java. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence criminality in East Java to ensure appropriate crime prevention and control measures can be taken. The factors that potentially influence crime in East Java studied include population density, the number of poor people, unemployment, Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and per Capita Expenditure, which are associated with geographical conditions in each region (regency/city) collected from BPS East Java in 2022. Meanwhile, the number of crimes is collected from the East Java Regional Police. This research uses a statistical method, namely the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), which is a particular form of the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) method with Queen Contiguity weighting by analyzing geographically (spatial processes). Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that the influential factors were unemployment, HDI, GRDP, and per Capita Expenditure, and the R-square result was obtained at 85.18%. This shows a relationship between spatial accessibility and crime, where unemployment, HDI, GRDP, and per Capita Expenditure in an area can affect regional vulnerability to crime

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 119 co-authorship links · 15 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

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  • UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya
  • Meteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency
  • Badan Pusat Statistik
  • Universiti Teknologi MARA
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Dian Candra Rini NovitasariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya6
Moh. HafiyusholehUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya6
Wika Dianita UtamiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya4
Silvia Kartika SariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Latifatun Nadya DesinainiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Diah Devi PramestiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Yahya Vigo Tri SaputraUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya3
Ida PurwantiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Muhammad ImronUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Abdulloh HamidUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Husna Nur LailiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Dian YuliatiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Fajar SetiawanMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency2
Nurissaidah UlinnuhaUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya2
Ghina Salsabila FirdausUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Ahmad Teguh WibowoAffiliation unknown1
Diah Restu NingsihUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Aris FananiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Luluk WulandariUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Nanida Jenahara ZaenUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Suyesti YusiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Siti Nur FadilahUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Firman ArmunantoBadan Pusat Statistik1
Diva Ayu SNMUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Jauharotul InayahUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Eka Eliyana SUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Fadjar SuhaeriBadan Pusat Statistik1
Shukor Sanim Mohd FauziUniversiti Teknologi MARA1
Maunah SetyawatiUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Jeneiro MaulanaAffiliation unknown1
Fery FirmansyahAffiliation unknown1
Achmad Fachril Yusuf AbabilUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Syamil Waris Dien MuhammadUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Shifa Amelia RachmanUIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya1
Adhim SalamianiMeteorological, Climatological, And Geophysical Agency1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">MODELING CRIME IN EAST JAVA USING SPATIAL DURBIN MODEL REGRESSION</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Farida, Yuniar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Farmita, Mayandah</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Intan, Putroue Keumala</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Khaulasari, Hani</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Wibowo, Achmad Teguh</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">The high crime rate will create unrest and losses for the community. One of the provinces with high crime rates is East Java. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence criminality in East Java to ensure appropriate crime prevention and control measures can be taken. The factors that potentially influence crime in East Java studied include population density, the number of poor people, unemployment, Human Development Index (HDI), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and per Capita Expenditure, which are associated with geographical conditions in each region (regency/city) collected from BPS East Java in 2022. Meanwhile, the number of crimes is collected from the East Java Regional Police. This research uses a statistical method, namely the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM), which is a particular form of the Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR) method with Queen Contiguity weighting by analyzing geographically (spatial processes). Based on the results of the analysis, it was found that the influential factors were unemployment, HDI, GRDP, and per Capita Expenditure, and the R-square result was obtained at 85.18%. This shows a relationship between spatial accessibility and crime, where unemployment, HDI, GRDP, and per Capita Expenditure in an area can affect regional vulnerability to crime</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-07-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/11380</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1497-1508</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 1497-1508</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol18iss3year2024</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/11380/8582</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2024 Yuniar Farida, Mayandah Farmita, Putroue Keumala Intan, Hani Khaulasari, Achmad Teguh Wibowo</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>