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A FRACTIONAL-ORDER MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE SPREAD OF INFLUENZA

BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan · Vol. 19 No. 1 (2025) · pp. 491–502

DOI
10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp491-502
ISSN
2615-3017, 1978-7227
Published
2025-01-13
Publisher
PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY
Language
eng
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0

Abstract

Influenza is an infectious disease that has become a public health concern and affects millions of people every year. In Indonesia, 1,527 people were recorded as being infected with influenza from May 2013 to April 2016. In this article, a fractional-order mathematical model of influenza spread was formulated in the sense of Caputo derivative. Based on the model analysis, we obtained two equilibrium points: the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. Meanwhile, the endemic equilibrium point exists and tends to be asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Next, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine whether changes in parameter values affect the increase or decrease in the value of the basic reproduction number. Lastly, the numerical simulation of the fractional-order model is demonstrated to support the analytical results.

Collaboration network of the authors

25 authors · 58 co-authorship links · 28 across different organisations

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • Universitas Airlangga
  • Hasanuddin University
  • Universitas Halu Oleo
  • Universitas Islam Negeri Palopo
  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
  • Diponegoro University
  • Federal University of Technology
  • Other organisations
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Cicik AlfiniyahUniversitas Airlangga3
Wahyuni HusainUniversitas Islam Negeri Palopo1
Muhammad Ashabul KahfiUniversitas Islam Negeri Palopo1
Agus IndiyantoUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
Bahtiar BahtiarUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Fitriah AmirUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Stefanie Jessica Henny LarasatiDiponegoro University1
Chairun Annisa AryantiUniversitas Halu Oleo1
Retno FitriantiHasanuddin University1
Insany Fitri NurqamarHasanuddin University1
Mirzalina ZaenalHasanuddin University1
Daniella Cynthia SHasanuddin University1
Wahda WahdaHasanuddin University1
Indah Nurun IzzatiUniversitas Airlangga1
Ananda NoersenaUniversitas Airlangga1
Afeez AbidemiFederal University of Technology1
Nabil Azizul HakimUniversitas Airlangga1
Faishal Farrel HerdichoUniversitas Airlangga1
John Olajide AkanniKolaDaisi University1
Mohamad IsramAffiliation unknown1
Sara Wibawaning RespatiPoliteknik Negeri Balikpapan1
Sri KusriniAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">A FRACTIONAL-ORDER MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE SPREAD OF INFLUENZA</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Akbar, Abyan Daffa</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Fatmawati, Fatmawati</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Ahmadin, Ahmadin</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">Influenza is an infectious disease that has become a public health concern and affects millions of people every year. In Indonesia, 1,527 people were recorded as being infected with influenza from May 2013 to April 2016. In this article, a fractional-order  &amp;nbsp;mathematical model of influenza spread was formulated in the sense of Caputo derivative. Based on the model analysis, we obtained two equilibrium points: the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. Meanwhile, the endemic equilibrium point exists and tends to be asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number is greater than one. Next, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine whether changes in parameter values affect the increase or decrease in the value of the basic reproduction number. Lastly, the numerical simulation of the fractional-order model is demonstrated to support the analytical results.
&amp;nbsp;</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-01-13</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14408</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.30598/barekengvol19iss1pp491-502</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan; Vol 19 No 1 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application; 491-502</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2615-3017</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1978-7227</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.30598/barekengvol19iss1year2025</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/14408/9568</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2025 Abyan Daffa Akbar, Fatmawati Fatmawati, Ahmadin Ahmadin</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0</dc:rights>
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