Open access Journal
ANN-ENHANCED ARIMA MODELS FOR SST-BASED SEASONAL FISH-CATCH FORECASTING AND DECISION-SUPPORT IN BENGKULU WATERS, INDONESIA
Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Terapan Universitas Jambi · Vol. 10 No. 4 (2026) · pp. 2220–2236
- ISSN
- 2580-2259, 2580-2240
- Published
- 2026-08-31
- Publisher
- LPPM Universitas Jambi
- Language
- en
Abstract
This study presents a comparative evaluation of hybrid ARIMA-family forecasting models combined with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for seasonal fish-catch prediction in Bengkulu waters, Indonesia, while assessing the role of sea surface temperature (SST) as an environmental predictor. Monthly SST data from NASA’s Giovanni portal and pelagic fish-catch records collected between January 2017 and June 2025 were used to develop ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, and SARIMAX models, whose residuals were subsequently modeled using Feedforward Neural Networks (FFNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to capture nonlinear temporal dependencies. Among the evaluated models, the hybrid ARIMA–LSTM achieved the highest forecasting accuracy on the available dataset, with an RMSE of 76.779 and a MAPE of 19.223%, whereas hybrid models that explicitly incorporate SST as a linear exogenous predictor showed lower predictive performance. These findings suggest that although SST remains an ecologically important environmental driver of pelagic fisheries, its predictive contribution may be better captured by nonlinear, lag-dependent relationships embedded in historical fish-catch observations rather than by contemporaneous linear exogenous modeling. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence for selecting appropriate hybrid forecasting models under practical fisheries data conditions and highlights their potential application as analytical components within fisheries Decision Support Systems (DSS) for adaptive fisheries management.
Keywords
Collaboration network of the authors
35 authors · 93 co-authorship links · 17 across different organisations
Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.
- University of Bengkulu
- University of Brawijaya
- National Research and Innovation Agency
- Lampung University
- IPB University
- Universitas Gadjah Mada
- Affiliation unknown
- Different organisations
- Same organisation
- Affiliation unknown
- Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
| Co-author | Organisation | Joint articles |
|---|---|---|
| Septri Damayanti | University of Bengkulu | 6 |
| Nur Afandi | University of Bengkulu | 4 |
| Vivin Acnesya | University of Bengkulu | 2 |
| Aang Nuryaman | Lampung University | 2 |
| Swita Baki | University of Bengkulu | 2 |
| Wina Ayu Lestari | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Firdaus Firdaus | National Research and Innovation Agency | 1 |
| Raditya Janaloka Natisharevi | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Pepi Novianti | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Nur Afandi | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Siska Yosmar | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Lidya Savitri | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Meca Nerdika | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Fajri Ramadan | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Nova Asri Ramdhani | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Anggel Dwi Miranda | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Henny Pramoedyo | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Achmad Efendi | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Suci Astutik | University of Brawijaya | 1 |
| Ramya Rachmawati | Affiliation unknown | 1 |
| Ratna Widayati | Universitas Gadjah Mada | 1 |
| Nurul Hidayati | IPB University | 1 |
| Bunga Aulya Warrahma | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Winalia Agwil | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Ressy Fitrizka Haryanti | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Indah Wahyuliani | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| Sigit Nugroho | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
| PRIHATIN SIHOTANG | University of Bengkulu | 1 |
Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.