Melola Discovery

← Melola Discovery

Journal

Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020) · pp. 117–128

DOI
10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2020-08-24
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en

Abstract

This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted < 10%.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

13 authors · 33 co-authorship links

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • State University of Medan
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Marlina Setia SinagaState University of Medan3
Rinjani Cyra NabilaState University of Medan2
Amanda FitriaState University of Medan2
Nita SuryaniState University of Medan2
Faridawaty MarpaungState University of Medan2
Yulita Molliq RangkutiState University of Medan1
Didi FebrianState University of Medan1
Said IskandarAffiliation unknown1
Sudianto ManullangState University of Medan1
Fatizanolo BuuloloState University of Medan1
Sri DewiState University of Medan1
Eri WidyastutiState University of Medan1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
<oai_dc:dc xmlns="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/  http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing, Naive Model, and SARIMA Methods for Forecasting Rainfall in Medan</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Arnita, Arnita</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Exponential Smoothing</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Naive Model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">SARIMA</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study aims to compare the best method on the forecasting system of rainfall in Medan using Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Naive Model, and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) . The data used in this study is rainfall data for 10 years (2009 – 2019). From the simulation by comparing existing method, the best model is SES with  and value of MAPE (Mean Absolut Percentage Error) sebesar 2,47%. And then  SARIMA (1,01,1)(4,0,3)12 whit value of MAPE  is2,93%. Both of this model is high accurate model because value of MAPE resulted &amp;lt; 10%.  </dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2020-08-24</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/jmsk.v17i1.10236</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 17 No. 1 (2020): JMSK, SEPTEMBER, 2020; 117-128</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/10236/pdf</dc:relation>
	<dc:relation>10.20956/j.v17i1.10236.g5713</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2020 arnita arnita</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>