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Poisson-Exponential Distribution Approach to Survival Analysis of Right-Censored Data of Lung Cancer Patients

Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi · Vol. 22 No. 2 (2026) · pp. 301–314

DOI
10.20956/j.v22i2.46746
ISSN
2614-8811, 1858-1382
Published
2026-01-10
Publisher
Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

Survival analysis of lung cancer patients is essential for understanding the dynamics of their survival probabilities over time. The Poisson–Exponential (PE) distribution is particularly relevant for data involving complementary risks and right-censoring, and it provides a framework for comparing different parameter estimation approaches. This study aims to estimate the parameters of the PE distribution for the survival times of lung cancer patients treated at Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital, Makassar, in 2015, and to compare the performance of two estimation methods: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Maximum Product Spacing (MPS). Parameter estimation was conducted numerically using the Newton–Raphson algorithm, resulting in and. The survival probabilities decline as survival time increases, and both the PE–MLE and PE–MPS curves closely follow the Kaplan–Meier estimator. All information criteria indicate that MPS outperforms MLE, as reflected by a higher log-likelihood and lower AIC, AICc, and CAIC values. These findings demonstrate that the PE distribution is suitable for modeling the survival dynamics of lung cancer patients, with MPS identified as the most appropriate parameter estimation method for the analyzed dataset.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

38 authors · 155 co-authorship links

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  • Universitas Islam Negeri Sjech M. Djamil Djambek Bukittinggi
  • Institut Agama Islam Negeri Kendari
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Siswanto SiswantoAffiliation unknown4
Erna Tri HerdianiAffiliation unknown3
Andi M Alfin BasoAffiliation unknown3
Georgina M. TinungkiAffiliation unknown2
Andi Kresna JayaAffiliation unknown2
- SiswantoAffiliation unknown2
Nirwan IlyasAffiliation unknown2
Ayu Pratika PutriAffiliation unknown2
Annurial Fitrayah TaufiqAffiliation unknown2
Ahmad Maulana SyarifAffiliation unknown2
Nurmimie KharinaAffiliation unknown2
Samsir Aditya AniaAffiliation unknown2
Nurfadilah NurfadilahInstitut Agama Islam Negeri Kendari2
Muhammad Ridzky DavalaAffiliation unknown2
Raupong RaupongAffiliation unknown1
Vieri KoerniawanAffiliation unknown1
Georgina Maria TinungkiAffiliation unknown1
Anna IslamiyatiAffiliation unknown1
Novilia JaoAffiliation unknown1
Riska RasyidAffiliation unknown1
Ika Pratiwi HayaAffiliation unknown1
Sitti SahrimanAffiliation unknown1
Muhammad FadilAffiliation unknown1
A.Muthiah Nur AngrianyAffiliation unknown1
Rini JamalAffiliation unknown1
Andi FebriyantiAffiliation unknown1
Rahmiati RahimAffiliation unknown1
Herlina RasyidUniversitas Islam Negeri Sjech M. Djamil Djambek Bukittinggi1
Nur Aliah RamadhaniAffiliation unknown1
Nadia Nazwadiah CaesarAffiliation unknown1
Zaraswati Dwyana ZainuddinAffiliation unknown1
Agung Muhammad TakdirAffiliation unknown1
Nasrah SirajangAffiliation unknown1
YULIANA.DEWI PutriAffiliation unknown1
Puji Puspa SariAffiliation unknown1
Nur Aminah AhmadAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 5 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Poisson-Exponential Distribution Approach to Survival Analysis of Right-Censored Data of Lung Cancer Patients</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Yunita, Andi Isna</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sunusi, Nurtiti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">analisis survival</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">data tersensor kanan</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">poisson-exponential</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">MLE</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">MPS</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Survival analysis of lung cancer patients is essential for understanding the dynamics of their survival probabilities over time. The Poisson–Exponential (PE) distribution is particularly relevant for data involving complementary risks and right-censoring, and it provides a framework for comparing different parameter estimation approaches. This study aims to estimate the parameters of the PE distribution for the survival times of lung cancer patients treated at Dr. Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital, Makassar, in 2015, and to compare the performance of two estimation methods: Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Maximum Product Spacing (MPS). Parameter estimation was conducted numerically using the Newton–Raphson algorithm, resulting in  and . The survival probabilities decline as survival time increases, and both the PE–MLE and PE–MPS curves closely follow the Kaplan–Meier estimator. All information criteria indicate that MPS outperforms MLE, as reflected by a higher log-likelihood and lower AIC, AICc, and CAIC values. These findings demonstrate that the PE distribution is suitable for modeling the survival dynamics of lung cancer patients, with MPS identified as the most appropriate parameter estimation method for the analyzed dataset.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Department of Mathematics, Hasanuddin University</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-01-10</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/46746</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.20956/j.v22i2.46746</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi; Vol. 22 No. 2 (2026): JANUARY 2026; 301-314</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2614-8811</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1382</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unhas.ac.id/index.php/jmsk/article/view/46746/13978</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Komputasi</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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