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Analysis of The Effect of Food Commodity Price Changes on Inflation in Central Java

Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics · Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025) · pp. 266–280

DOI
10.15294/efficient.v8i3.34838
ISSN
2655-318X, 2655-6197
Published
2025-12-01
Publisher
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Language
eng

Abstract

Commodity price movements have a significant impact on regional economic stability, especially in terms of inflation. In Central Java Province, fluctuations in the prices of rice, shallots, curly red chilies, red cayenne peppers, and cooking oil are the main causes of inflation. This phenomenon requires a more in-depth examination of the relationship between price fluctuations and inflation. This means that studies at the regional level are still limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of commodity price changes on inflation in Central Java. The data used is from 2021 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) - Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The data used is monthly secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Food Agency. The estimation results show that in the short term, the variables of curly red chili price, previous period curly red chili price, previous period rice price, and previous period cooking oil price have a significant effect on inflation, while in the long term, curly red chili price has a positive effect and rice price has a negative effect on inflation in Central Java. The CointEq(-1) coefficient, which has a value of -0.106705 and is significant, indicates the existence of a correction mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. This value suggests that around 10.67% of the deviation of inflation from its equilibrium in the previous period is adjusted or corrected during the current period.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 86 co-authorship links · 3 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • State University of Semarang
  • State University of Malang
  • Indonesia Open University
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
R Benny RiyantoAffiliation unknown3
Talitha WidiatningrumAffiliation unknown3
Widiyanto WidiyantoAffiliation unknown3
Shanty OktaviliaAffiliation unknown3
Fauzul AdzimAffiliation unknown3
Arief YuliantoState University of Semarang2
Etty Puji LestariAffiliation unknown2
Eko HandoyoAffiliation unknown2
Amin PujiatiAffiliation unknown2
Kardoyo KardoyoAffiliation unknown2
Moh Yasir AlimiAffiliation unknown2
Subiyanto SubiyantoState University of Semarang1
Nur Azis SalimState University of Semarang1
Setya Budi Arif PrabowoState University of Semarang1
Deyndrawan SutrisnoState University of Semarang1
Andika AnantyoState University of Semarang1
Dewi AnggrianiState University of Semarang1
Etty SoesilowatiState University of Malang1
Etty Puji LestariIndonesia Open University1
Nana Kariada Tri MartutiState University of Semarang1
Edi KurniawanAffiliation unknown1
Margareta RahayuningsihAffiliation unknown1
S MartonoAffiliation unknown1
Herlin PujiartiAffiliation unknown1
Aldias BahatmakaAffiliation unknown1
Markus DiantoroAffiliation unknown1
Prihatini RetnaningsihAffiliation unknown1
Edi KurniawanAffiliation unknown1
Aji Prasetya WibawaAffiliation unknown1
Mutiara KiranawatiAffiliation unknown1
Lukluk Ul MuyassarohAffiliation unknown1
Edi KurniawanAffiliation unknown1
Andryan SetyadharmaAffiliation unknown1
Dini Mellinda KrisnawatiAffiliation unknown1
Said Nur OctaviantoAffiliation unknown1
Khafid IsmailAffiliation unknown1
Retno GinanjarAffiliation unknown1
Arum Kartika WulandariAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/oai, first harvested 5 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Analysis of The Effect of Food Commodity Price Changes on Inflation in Central Java</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Azzahra Tribuana Alim </dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ARDL</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">ECM</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Food Commodities</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Price</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Commodity price movements have a significant impact on regional economic stability, especially in terms of inflation. In Central Java Province, fluctuations in the prices of rice, shallots, curly red chilies, red cayenne peppers, and cooking oil are the main causes of inflation. This phenomenon requires a more in-depth examination of the relationship between price fluctuations and inflation. This means that studies at the regional level are still limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of commodity price changes on inflation in Central Java. The data used is from 2021 to 2025 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) - Error Correction Model (ECM) method. The data used is monthly secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the National Food Agency. The estimation results show that in the short term, the variables of curly red chili price, previous period curly red chili price, previous period rice price, and previous period cooking oil price have a significant effect on inflation, while in the long term, curly red chili price has a positive effect and rice price has a negative effect on inflation in Central Java. The CointEq(-1) coefficient, which has a value of -0.106705 and is significant, indicates the existence of a correction mechanism towards long-term equilibrium. This value suggests that around 10.67% of the deviation of inflation from its equilibrium in the previous period is adjusted or corrected during the current period.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-12-01</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/article/view/34838</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/efficient.v8i3.34838</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics; Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025); 266-280</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2655-318X</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2655-6197</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/pjseyt07</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/efficient/article/view/34838/7382</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>