Comparative Analysis: Accuracy of Certainty Factor and Dempster Shafer Methods in Expert Systems for Tropical Disease Diagnosis

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to diagnose Neglected Tropical Diseases early by applying the concept of an expert system as a tool that works by mimicking the thought patterns of an expert (doctor). The methods applied in this expert system are Certainty Factor and Dempster Shafer. Both methods work by combining a number of pieces of evidence (symptoms) to produce a confidence value for a disease. Methods: The study began with discussions and interviews with experts to collect information and data about Neglected Tropical Diseases. Conducting a literature review study to enrich knowledge about Neglected Tropical Diseases. Two main inference methods are used to detect diseases based on patient symptoms. The Certainty Factor method uses expert value weighting parameters and patient input value weighting as a basis for knowledge. The Dempster Shafer method only uses expert value weighting in analyzing the probability of symptoms to produce a level of diagnostic accuracy. Result: The Certainty Factor method works by integrating patient and expert weight values into its calculations. Meanwhile, the Dempster Shafer method considers expert weight values without involving patient weight values. Expert system searches using the Forward Chaining inference engine show that the Certainty Factor method has an accuracy probability value of up to 90%. Meanwhile, the Dempster Shafer method has an accuracy value of 70%. Novelty: The results of the study show that expert systems can be applied in the health sector, especially in diagnosing Neglected Tropical Diseases. Of the two methods used, the Certainty Factor method shows a high accuracy value, so it can help detect Neglected Tropical Diseases early and provide treatment solutions to improve health.

Keywords

• Neglected tropical diseases
• Expert system
• Certainty factor
• Dempster shafer