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Inflation Forecasting in Indonesia Using Lee’s Fuzzy Time Series Method

Unnes Journal of Mathematics · Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025) · pp. 16–22

DOI
10.15294/ujm.v14i1.14215
ISSN
2460-5859, 2252-6943
Published
2025-06-14
Publisher
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Language
eng

Abstract

Inflation is an important economic indicator, the rate of growth is should be low and stable. Unstable inflation will complicate people's decisions to consume, invest and produce which in turn will reduce economic growth. One of the effects of this inflation is slow economic growth. For this reason, the government needs to consider policies that can influence it. Bank Indonesia one of the policies to control inflation is monetary. Forecasting methods are used to help facilitate future planning and can be used as guidelines for decision making that can improve economic performance. Forecasting used is fuzzy time series Lee. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for the period January 2017-May 2022. The error rate used is MAPE which produces a very good MAPE value of 8,16%. Forecasting results for the next period, June 2022, amounted to 3,66%.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

15 authors · 62 co-authorship links

Hover or tap a name to highlight its co-authors. Double-click to open the author's page.

  • State University of Semarang
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Different organisations
  • Same organisation
  • Affiliation unknown
  • Thicker line = more joint articles · bigger circle = more articles
Show as table
Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Bambang Eko SusiloState University of Semarang2
Trida Ridho FarizState University of Semarang2
Sri SukaesihState University of Semarang2
Siti WahyuniAffiliation unknown2
Aditya MariantiAffiliation unknown2
Nuni WidiartiAffiliation unknown2
M. Faris Al HakimAffiliation unknown1
Karista Gadis SetiyandaAffiliation unknown1
M. Faris Al HakimAffiliation unknown1
Faith Miftah MaulanaAffiliation unknown1
Birru Asia RayaniAffiliation unknown1
Faiza Al Laily NasronAffiliation unknown1
Neli Septiana PutriAffiliation unknown1
Novita Sari ParapatAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/oai, first harvested 6 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Inflation Forecasting in Indonesia Using Lee’s Fuzzy Time Series Method</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sari, Virgania</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">forecasting</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Fuzzy Time Series</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Lee model</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Inflation is an important economic indicator, the rate of growth is should be low and stable. Unstable inflation will complicate people's decisions to consume, invest and produce which in turn will reduce economic growth. One of the effects of this inflation is slow economic growth. For this reason, the government needs to consider policies that can influence it. Bank Indonesia one of the policies to control inflation is monetary. Forecasting methods are used to help facilitate future planning and can be used as guidelines for decision making that can improve economic performance. Forecasting used is fuzzy time series Lee. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for the period January 2017-May 2022. The error rate used is MAPE which produces a very good MAPE value of 8,16%. Forecasting results for the next period, June 2022, amounted to 3,66%.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-06-14</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
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	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/view/14215</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/ujm.v14i1.14215</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Unnes Journal of Mathematics; Vol. 14 No. 1 (2025): Unnes Journal of Mathematics Volume 1, 2025; 16-22</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-5859</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2252-6943</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/ujm.v14i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/ujm/article/view/14215/4410</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Unnes Journal of Mathematics</dc:rights>
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