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The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents

Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah · Vol. 12 No. 5 (2024) · pp. 421–442

DOI
10.22437/ppd.v12i5.37663
ISSN
2355-8520, 2338-4603
Published
2024-12-31
Publisher
Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi
Language
en
License
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics.

Keywords

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9 authors · 16 co-authorship links

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Co-authorOrganisationJoint articles
Sistia Asfa FiqrotinnisaAffiliation unknown1
Wahida RahmawatiAffiliation unknown1
Hanifah -Affiliation unknown1
Fadila IskandarAffiliation unknown1
Salma RasheedaAffiliation unknown1
Oggy Maulidya Perdana PutriAffiliation unknown1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/index.php/JES/oai, first harvested 6 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.
Original metadata (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">The impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock markets: The moderating role of consumer confidence across five continents</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">A'la, Ahmad Zidni Nuuron</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Sucipto, Agus</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Yuliana, Indah</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Consumer confidence index</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Global stock market performance</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Inflation</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Interest rates</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">This study examines the impact of inflation and interest rates on global stock market index performance, with the moderating role of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) across five countries representing different continents: the United States, the United Kingdom, China, South Africa, and Australia. These countries were selected for their distinct economic policies and significant contributions to the global economy. Using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method and 2,400 monthly data observations spanning 2014 to 2023, sourced from official institutions such as central banks and financial agencies, this research provides key insights. The findings reveal that inflation positively influences index performance in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia, while it negatively impacts performance in China. Interest rates predominantly have a negative effect on index performance, except in the United Kingdom and China, where the effect is statistically insignificant. The moderation effect of the CCI varies by country, highlighting the role of unique economic contexts in shaping the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and stock market indices. This study offers valuable implications for policymakers in managing inflation and bolstering consumer confidence and provides strategic insights for investors navigating global economic dynamics.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Program Magister Ilmu Ekonomi  Pascasarjana Universitas Jambi</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2024-12-31</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22437/ppd.v12i5.37663</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; Vol. 12 No. 5 (2024): Jurnal Perspektif Pembiayaan dan Pembangunan Daerah; 421 - 442</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2355-8520</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2338-4603</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/JES/article/view/37663/19990</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Ahmad Zidni Nuuron A'la, Agus Sucipto, Indah Yuliana</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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