The relationship between climate factors and dengue fever incidence in Jambi City, Indonesia

Syukri, Muhammad; Nasution, Helmi Suryani; Butar-butar, Marta Butar-butar; Dewi, Hasna; Herman; Dwinata, Indra; Akbar, Fajar; Irawan, Octa

doi:10.22437/proca.v1i2.50336

Open access Journal

The relationship between climate factors and dengue fever incidence in Jambi City, Indonesia

Proceedings Academic Universitas Jambi · Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025) · pp. 545–550

DOI: 10.22437/proca.v1i2.50336
Published: 2025-11-29
Publisher: LPPM Universitas Jambi
Language: en
License: creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Abstract

Background: Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. Climatic conditions play an important role in influencing mosquito populations and virus transmission. A change in climate conditions can lead to alterations in mosquito biology, such as breading lifespan, and virus replication rates, which in turn affect the incidence of human dengue cases. The aimed of this study is to analyze the relationship between climate factors and the dengue incidence by considering a lag effect of up to four months. Methods: This study employed a retrospective ecological time-series design. This study analysed the monthly dengue cases from January 2010 to December 2024. The data were obtained from the Jambi City Health Office. Climatic data, including minimum, maximum, and average temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), and rainfall (mm/day), were collected from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation test with lag periods ranging from 0 to 4 months. Results: The results showed that maximum and average temperatures had a significant positive correlation with dengue cases at a three-month lag (r = 0.257; p = 0.001 and r = 0.181; p = 0.016, respectively). Rainfall exhibited a significant negative correlation (r = −0.205; p = 0.006). Minimum temperature and relative humidity were not significantly associated with dengue incidence. Conclusion: Temperature and rainfall influence dengue transmission with a three-month lag effect. These findings can support early warning systems and climate-informed dengue control programs.

Keywords

Collaboration network of the authors

40 authors · 162 co-authorship links · 1 across different organisations · showing the 40 most connected

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Universitas Halu Oleo
Universitas Ahmad Dahlan
Affiliation unknown

Different organisations
Same organisation
Affiliation unknown
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Co-author	Organisation	Joint articles
Sarinah Sarinah	Universitas Halu Oleo	5
Puspita Sari	Affiliation unknown	4
Adelina Fitri	Affiliation unknown	4
Evy Wisudariani	Affiliation unknown	4
Hendra Dhermawan Sitanggang	Affiliation unknown	4
Fahrul Islam	Affiliation unknown	4
Sakir Sakir	Universitas Halu Oleo	3
Dhian Herdhiansyah	Affiliation unknown	3
Asriani Asriani	Affiliation unknown	3
Fairuz Fairuz	Affiliation unknown	3
Lipinwati Lipinwati	Affiliation unknown	3
M. Ridwan	Affiliation unknown	3
Ummi Kalsum	Affiliation unknown	3
Esa Indah Ayudia	Affiliation unknown	3
Rd. Halim	Affiliation unknown	3
Rizalia Wardiah	Affiliation unknown	3
Marta Butar Butar	Affiliation unknown	3
Vinna Rahayu Ningsih	Affiliation unknown	3
Abdul Fadlil	Universitas Ahmad Dahlan	2
La Ode Reskiaddin	Affiliation unknown	2
Sri Astuti Siregar	Affiliation unknown	2
Rina Nofri Enis	Affiliation unknown	2
Tia Wida Ekaputri	Affiliation unknown	2
Attiya Istarini	Affiliation unknown	2
Hafizah	Affiliation unknown	2
Denok Tri Hardiningsih	Affiliation unknown	2
Fitrianingsih	Affiliation unknown	2
Usi Lanita	Affiliation unknown	2
Andree Aulia Rahmat	Affiliation unknown	2
Huntari Harahap	Affiliation unknown	2
Fairuz	Affiliation unknown	2
Wahid Alfaridsi Achmad Zein	Affiliation unknown	1

Affiliations come from OpenAlex; journal OAI-PMH metadata carries none. Authors without an OpenAlex ID are matched by name, which can merge or split people.

Metadata source: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/index.php/PROCA/oai, first harvested 6 Nov 2026, last seen 8 Nov 2026.

Original metadata (oai_dc)

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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">The relationship between climate factors and dengue fever incidence in Jambi City, Indonesia</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Syukri, Muhammad</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Nasution, Helmi Suryani</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Butar-butar, Marta Butar-butar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Dewi, Hasna</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Herman</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Dwinata, Indra</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Akbar, Fajar</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Irawan, Octa</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Dengue, temperature, rainfall, humidity, lag effect, jambi city</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">Background: Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Indonesia. Climatic conditions play an important role in influencing mosquito populations and virus transmission. A change in climate conditions can lead to alterations in mosquito biology, such as breading lifespan, and virus replication rates, which in turn affect the incidence of human dengue cases. The aimed of this study is to analyze the relationship between climate factors and the dengue incidence by considering a lag effect of up to four months. Methods: This study employed a retrospective ecological time-series design. This study analysed the monthly dengue cases from January 2010 to December 2024. The data were obtained from the Jambi City Health Office. Climatic data, including minimum, maximum, and average temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), and rainfall (mm/day), were collected from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The data were analyzed using Spearman’s correlation test with lag periods ranging from 0 to 4 months. Results: The results showed that maximum and average temperatures had a significant positive correlation with dengue cases at a three-month lag (r = 0.257; p = 0.001 and r = 0.181; p = 0.016, respectively). Rainfall exhibited a significant negative correlation (r = −0.205; p = 0.006). Minimum temperature and relative humidity were not significantly associated with dengue incidence. Conclusion: Temperature and rainfall influence dengue transmission with a three-month lag effect. These findings can support early warning systems and climate-informed dengue control programs.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">LPPM Universitas Jambi</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2025-11-29</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/PROCA/article/view/50336</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.22437/proca.v1i2.50336</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Proceedings Academic Universitas Jambi; Vol. 1 No. 2 (2025): The 6th Jambi Medicine and Health Science International Conference (JAMHESIC); 545-550</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.22437/proca.v1i2</dc:source>
	<dc:language>en</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://online-journal.unja.ac.id/PROCA/article/view/50336/22638</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Syukri, Helmi Suryani Nasution, Marta Butar-butar Butar-butar, Hasna Dewi, Herman, Indra Dwinata, Fajar Akbar, Octa Irawan</dc:rights>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</dc:rights>
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