TIME SERIES MODEL WITH LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY EFFECT FOR GREENHOUSE GAS ESTIMATION IN INDONESIA

Abstract

Climate change is one of the major challenges in the world today, characterized by changes in meteorological values, such as rainfall and temperature, caused by the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as CO2, N2O, and CH4. These accumulated greenhouse gases form a layer that prevents heat radiation from escaping, causing the greenhouse effect and global warming. Addressing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions requires appropriate strategies, one of which is to predict future greenhouse gas emissions for planning appropriate actions. Time series models such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model are often used but have drawbacks due to their assumption of linear relationships. On the other hand, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, introduced by Hochreiter and Schmidhuber in 1997, can learn complex and nonlinear relationships in data. This study uses LSTM to estimate greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia based on emitting sectors, hoping to anticipate negative impacts and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The results show that the LSTM model has good performance with an error below 20%, and it is predicted that greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase.