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Integrated Socio Epidemiological Model for Leptospirosis Control in Tidal Flood Prone Areas

Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat · Vol. 21 No. 3 (2026) · hlm. 639–646

DOI
10.15294/kemas.v21i3.34323
ISSN
2355-3596, 1858-1196
Terbit
2026-01-30
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang in collaboration with Ikatan Ahli Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia (IAKMI Tingkat Pusat) and Jejaring Nasional Pendidikan Kesehatan (JNPK)
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

The Elderly populations in tidal flood-prone areas face heightened vulnerability to leptospirosis due to environmental hazards, recurrent inundations, and psychosocial stressors. This study analyzed an integrated socio-epidemiological model that accommodates a community-based intervention, targeting perceived stress, self-efficacy, and clean and healthy living behavior (PHBS), along with a system dynamics simulation to forecast leptospirosis incidence. This quasi-experimental study design was implemented with 70 participants (35 intervention and 35 control). The participants reside in flood-affected villages of Demak Regency, Indonesia, in 2024 (Purwosari, Sriwulan). Perceived stress (PSS-10), self-efficacy, and PHBS scores were measured at pre- and postintervention. Statistical analyses included Mann-Whitney, Wilcoxon, and paired t-tests. Delta scores were integrated into a stock-flow model (PowerSim Studio 10) incorporating behavioral and environmental risk variables to simulate leptospirosis cases for 2024–2029. The in- tervention group demonstrated significant improvements in self-efficacy (Δ=+5.69±8.17,p<0.001) and PHBS (Δ=+9.37±4.59, p<0.001), alongside a non-significant but clinically relevant reduction in perceived stress (Δ=-7.20±8.33, p=0.733 vs control). The dynamic model projected a 25–30% reduction in leptospirosis cases over five years with intervention, compared to a ≤5% decline without behavioral programs. Visual validation indicated alignment between simulated and real incidence trends (2020–2024). Integrating psychosocial behavioral interventions with dynamic modeling provides a reliable framework for leptospirosis control in flood-prone populations.

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  • Universitas Gadjah Mada
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Mursid RaharjoAfiliasi tidak diketahui4
Martini MartiniAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Dwi SutiningsihAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Liena SofianaAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Yusniar Hanani DarundiatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Bagoes WidjanarkoAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Cahya Tri PurnamiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Martha Irene KartasuryaAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Nur Endah WahyuningsihAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Evi WidowatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Alfiana Ainun NisaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Rafidha Nur AlifahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Della Rizky FitrianaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Luvi Lia NursucilowatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Edi KurniawanAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Zahroh ShaluhiyahAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Lily KresnowatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ayun SriatmiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ana Pujianti HarahapAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Handono KalimAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Bantar SuntokoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Suyanto HadiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Wahyu Adirama SaputraAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Edi DharmanaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ignatius RiwantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Ai Sri KosnayaniAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sri YuliawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Moh. Arie WurjantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Vyanadia Rizka FawziyaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Suhartono SuhartonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Akmaliya HayuningsihAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Dwiko Budi PermadiUniversitas Gadjah Mada1
SanudinAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
SRI WAHYUNIAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/kemas/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 8 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc) 
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en">Integrated Socio Epidemiological Model for Leptospirosis Control in Tidal Flood Prone Areas</dc:title>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Budiati, Risna Endah</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Hadisaputro, Suharyo</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Adi, Mateus Sakundarno</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Djati, Rr. Anggun Paramita</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Suhartono</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator xml:lang="en">Ramadhani, Tri</dc:creator>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Leptospirosis control</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Socioepidemiological model</dc:subject>
	<dc:subject xml:lang="en">Tidal flood-prone areas</dc:subject>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en">The Elderly populations in tidal flood-prone areas face heightened vulnerability to leptospirosis due to environmental hazards, recurrent inundations, and psychosocial stressors. This study analyzed an integrated socio-epidemiological model that accommodates a community-based intervention, targeting perceived stress, self-efficacy, and clean and healthy living behavior (PHBS), along with a system dynamics simulation to forecast leptospirosis incidence. This quasi-experimental study design was implemented with 70 participants (35 intervention and 35 control). The participants reside in flood-affected villages of Demak Regency, Indonesia, in 2024 (Purwosari, Sriwulan). Perceived stress (PSS-10), self-efficacy, and PHBS scores were measured at pre- and postintervention. Statistical analyses included Mann-Whitney, Wilcoxon, and paired t-tests. Delta scores were integrated into a stock-flow model (PowerSim Studio 10) incorporating behavioral and environmental risk variables to simulate leptospirosis cases for 2024–2029. The in- tervention group demonstrated significant improvements in self-efficacy (Δ=+5.69±8.17,p&amp;lt;0.001) and PHBS (Δ=+9.37±4.59, p&amp;lt;0.001), alongside a non-significant but clinically relevant reduction in perceived stress (Δ=-7.20±8.33, p=0.733 vs control). The dynamic model projected a 25–30% reduction in leptospirosis cases over five years with intervention, compared to a ≤5% decline without behavioral programs. Visual validation indicated alignment between simulated and real incidence trends (2020–2024). Integrating psychosocial behavioral interventions with dynamic modeling provides a reliable framework for leptospirosis control in flood-prone populations.</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en">Universitas Negeri Semarang in collaboration with Ikatan Ahli Kesehatan Masyarakat Indonesia (IAKMI Tingkat Pusat) and Jejaring Nasional Pendidikan Kesehatan (JNPK)</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2026-01-30</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/kemas/article/view/34323</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/kemas.v21i3.34323</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en">Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat; Vol. 21 No. 3 (2026); 639-646</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2355-3596</dc:source>
	<dc:source>1858-1196</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/kemas.v21i3</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/journals/kemas/article/view/34323/9059</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en">Copyright (c) 2026 Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>