Jurnal
Forecasting the Number of Tourist Visits to Semarang City Using the Holt-Winters Multiplicative and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) Methods
Unnes Journal of Mathematics · Vol. 14 No. 2 (2026) · hlm. 39–48
- ISSN
- 2460-5859, 2252-6943
- Terbit
- 2026-10-21
- Penerbit
- Universitas Negeri Semarang
- Bahasa
- eng
Abstrak
Forecasting is a crucial process in strategic planning, including in the tourism sector, which is highly influenced by seasonal fluctuations and external factors. In Semarang City, the number of tourist visits has experienced significant changes in recent years, particularly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a sharp decline in 2020 and 2021. Nevertheless, a post-pandemic upward trend in visits has begun to emerge. To support adaptive, data-driven planning, accurate forecasting methods capable of capturing both trend and seasonal patterns are essential. This study aims to compare the Holt-Winters Multiplicative method and Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) in forecasting tourist visits to Semarang City. The data used consist of monthly tourist visit records from 2017 to 2024, obtained from the Semarang City Office of Culture and Tourism. Forecast accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). The results show that the Holt-Winters Multiplicative method produced a lower MAE of 44,498.31 and SMAPE of 6.76%, compared to the Fourier Series Analysis method. Therefore, the Holt-Winters Multiplicative method is considered more accurate in forecasting tourist visits. This study is expected to contribute to more effective tourism management and development strategies at the regional level.
Kata kunci
Jaringan kolaborasi para penulis
40 penulis · 94 tautan kepenulisan bersama · 2 lintas organisasi · menampilkan 40 yang paling banyak terhubung
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- State University of Semarang
- Yogyakarta State University
- Afiliasi tidak diketahui
- Organisasi berbeda
- Organisasi sama
- Afiliasi tidak diketahui
- Garis lebih tebal = lebih banyak artikel bersama · lingkaran lebih besar = lebih banyak artikel
Tampilkan sebagai tabel
| Rekan penulis | Organisasi | Artikel bersama |
|---|---|---|
| Rochmad Rochmad | State University of Semarang | 6 |
| Ary Woro Kurniasih | State University of Semarang | 5 |
| Masrukan Masrukan | State University of Semarang | 3 |
| Mashuri Mashuri | State University of Semarang | 3 |
| Kholifatu Ulil Azmi | State University of Semarang | 2 |
| Mulyono Mulyono | State University of Semarang | 2 |
| Muhammad Kharis | State University of Semarang | 2 |
| Muhammad Zuhair Zahid | State University of Semarang | 2 |
| Amnan Haris | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| Yuda Hanafi Lubis | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Rembulan Permata Octalia | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| St. Budi Waluya | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| Scolastika Mariani | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Annisa Salma Zakiyyah | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Puput Relitasari | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Mashuri | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Chitra Ayu Nevtianingsi | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Fitri Novita Sari | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Rani Anggraini | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Sugiman Sugiman | Yogyakarta State University | 1 |
| Ahmad Ijlal Abdika | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Meli Septiana | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Ratih Kusumawati | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Wuryanto Wuryanto | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Hardi Suyitno | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Ula Himatul Aliyah | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Puji Handayani | Afiliasi tidak diketahui | 1 |
| Ylyas Sopyyev | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Endang Retno Winarti | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Rina Nurul Fathiya | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Soviana Nur Savitri | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Nana Umi Latifah | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Nawang Kusuma Miranti | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Linda Wijaya | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Nur Aisyah Isti | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Ahmad Badawi | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Bambang Eko Susilo | State University of Semarang | 1 |
| Oei Yuda Setiyo Priyanto | State University of Semarang | 1 |
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