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PERBANDINGAN AKURASI MODEL ARCH DAN GARCH PADA PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM BERBANTUAN MATLAB

Unnes Journal of Mathematics · Vol. 5 No. 1 (2017) · hlm. 81–89

DOI
10.15294/ujm.v5i1.13108
ISSN
2460-5859, 2252-6943
Terbit
2017-02-27
Penerbit
Universitas Negeri Semarang
Bahasa
eng

Abstrak

This article aims to get model data stock Unilever Indonesia Tbk. use the model ARCH and GARCH as well as comparing forecasting accuracy of the result of the next five days ahead model ARCH and GARCH on the stock Unilever Indonesia Tbk. use MATLAB. The methods used are design application forecasting uses GUI MATLAB, next model ARIMA Box-Jenkins, identification ARCH effect, forecasting use the model ARCH and GARCH, and compares the results second forecasting model that is based on the value of RMSE. On residual ARIMA best namely ARIMA(1,1,1) detected the effects ARCH so that data can modeled ARCH and GARCH. Model ARCH and GARCH best respectively namely ARCH(3) and GARCH(1,1). Based on value RMSE be seen that model best for forecasting the next five days ahead of data Unilever Indonesia Tbk. produced bymodels GARCH(1,1) because it has value RMSE smallest with equation conditional mean and conditional variance

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  • State University of Semarang
  • University of Brawijaya
  • IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon
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Rekan penulisOrganisasiArtikel bersama
Putriaji HendikawatiState University of Semarang10
Emi PujiastutiState University of Semarang7
Kartono KartonoState University of Semarang6
Amin SuyitnoState University of Semarang6
Mulyono MulyonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui6
Masrukan MasrukanState University of Semarang6
Isnarto IsnartoState University of Semarang3
St. Budi WaluyaAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Sunarmi SunarmiAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Mohammad AsikinState University of Semarang3
Zaenuri ZaenuriState University of Semarang3
Arief AgoestantoAfiliasi tidak diketahui3
Isti HidayahState University of Semarang3
Farida NursyahidahState University of Semarang2
Kristina WijayantiState University of Semarang2
Nurkaromah DwidayatiState University of Semarang2
Yuninda Diah PratiwiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Walid WalidState University of Semarang2
Aisyah Fany AchmaliaAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Endang SetyowatiUniversity of Brawijaya2
Dwijanto DwijantoState University of Semarang2
YL SukestiyarnoState University of Semarang2
Wardono WardonoAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
Kristina WijayantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui2
WardonoState University of Semarang1
Wardono WardonoState University of Semarang1
Muhamad Irwan HaqiqiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Agus YuliantoState University of Semarang1
Dwi Agung FitriantiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Yenrika Kurniati RahayuAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Mikke Novia IndrianiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Onwardono Rit RiyantoIAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon1
Dian BayujagaAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Sri Ady AstutiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Imanuel ImanuelAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Dwi Indah Ratri RatnasariAfiliasi tidak diketahui1
Vinda KhasmarawatiAfiliasi tidak diketahui1

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Sumber metadata: OAI-PMH (metadata jurnal) https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm/oai, pertama di-harvest 6 Nov 2026, terakhir terlihat 6 Nov 2026.
Metadata asli (oai_dc)
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	<dc:title xml:lang="en-US">PERBANDINGAN AKURASI MODEL ARCH DAN GARCH PADA PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM BERBANTUAN MATLAB</dc:title>
	<dc:creator>Sunarti, Sunarti</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Mariani, Scolastika</dc:creator>
	<dc:creator>Sugiman, Sugiman</dc:creator>
	<dc:description xml:lang="en-US">This article aims to get model data stock Unilever Indonesia Tbk. use the model ARCH and GARCH as well as comparing forecasting accuracy of the result of the next five days ahead model ARCH and GARCH on the stock Unilever Indonesia Tbk. use MATLAB. The methods used are design application forecasting uses GUI MATLAB, next model ARIMA Box-Jenkins, identification ARCH effect, forecasting use the model ARCH and GARCH, and compares the results second forecasting model that is based on the value of RMSE. On residual ARIMA best namely ARIMA(1,1,1) detected the effects ARCH so that data can modeled ARCH and GARCH. Model ARCH and GARCH best respectively namely ARCH(3) and GARCH(1,1). Based on value RMSE be seen that model best for forecasting the next five days ahead of data Unilever Indonesia Tbk. produced bymodels GARCH(1,1) because it has value RMSE smallest with equation conditional mean and conditional variance</dc:description>
	<dc:publisher xml:lang="en-US">Universitas Negeri Semarang</dc:publisher>
	<dc:date>2017-02-27</dc:date>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/article</dc:type>
	<dc:type>info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion</dc:type>
	<dc:type xml:lang="en-US">Peer-reviewed Article</dc:type>
	<dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
	<dc:identifier>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/ujm/article/view/13108</dc:identifier>
	<dc:identifier>10.15294/ujm.v5i1.13108</dc:identifier>
	<dc:source xml:lang="en-US">Unnes Journal of Mathematics; Vol 5 No 1 (2016); 81-89</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2460-5859</dc:source>
	<dc:source>2252-6943</dc:source>
	<dc:source>10.15294/ujm.v5i1</dc:source>
	<dc:language>eng</dc:language>
	<dc:relation>https://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/ujm/article/view/13108/7189</dc:relation>
	<dc:rights xml:lang="en-US">Copyright (c) 2017 Unnes Journal of Mathematics</dc:rights>
</oai_dc:dc>